BEAVER Model · College football · 2026

Track Record

How the picks held up, in public

2026 so far

pre-game predictions, scored once games are final

Winners picked

439-127

77.6% of 566 games

BEAVER’s picks: sides

280-276-10

50.4% · 52.4% breaks even

BEAVER’s picks: totals

275-291

48.6% · 52.4% breaks even

Average miss, margin

12.2

Vegas 11.5 · lower is better

Average miss, total

12.5

Vegas 12.3

Vegas gaps, against the spread

146-150

301 games with a 3+ pt gap

Are the win chances honest?

dots near the line mean yes

Winners picked by week

Sam’s Picks

Sam’s projected score against the Vegas line, graded the same way as BEAVER’s

Sam’s Picks: sides

79-89-5

47.0% · 52.4% breaks even

Sam’s Picks: totals

76-97

43.9% · 52.4% breaks even

Games with a Sam’s Pick

173

173 graded so far

How Vegas gaps have done

backtest, model’s side vs. the closing line, pushes excluded

Spread

Gap size	Games	Record	Model side won
0 to 3 pts	3,911	1,987-1,924	50.8%
3 to 5 pts	1,689	906-783	53.6%
5 to 7 pts	986	507-479	51.4%
7 to 10 pts	579	285-294	49.2%
10+ pts	235	113-122	48.1%

Total

Gap size	Games	Record	Model side won
0 to 2 pts	2,603	1,348-1,255	51.8%
2 to 4 pts	2,113	1,069-1,044	50.6%
4 to 6 pts	1,360	669-691	49.2%
6 to 9 pts	928	501-427	54.0%
9+ pts	348	176-172	50.6%

52.4% is the break-even rate at standard odds. A gap means the model disagrees with Vegas, not that it is right; small samples swing a lot.

Backtest

7,583 games, 2017 to 2026, each season predicted using only earlier seasons

Model	Avg miss, margin	Avg miss, total	Winners picked	BEAVER side	Brier score
EnsembleIn use	12.61	13.09	76.0%	51.3%	0.159
Ridge	12.66	13.13	75.7%	51.7%	0.159
LightGBM	12.76	13.24	75.8%	51.4%	0.160
Elo baseline	13.68	13.82	73.8%	48.9%	0.170
Vegas closing line	12.19	12.67	n/a	n/a	n/a

Average miss is points between the prediction and the real result. Brier score measures win-chance accuracy: 0.25 is a coin flip, lower is better.

Average miss by season

● Ensemble● Ridge● LightGBM● Elo baseline

BEAVER Model

83-85-5

49.4% against the spread

BEAVER leads by 4 games

173 head-to-head games · Weeks 6–8

Sam

79-89-5

47.0% against the spread

Tale of the tape

every game both picked, graded the same way

BEAVERSam

113-6065.3%

Winners picked

straight up

109-6463.0%

83-85-549.4%

Sides vs. Vegas

same line for both

79-89-547.0%

73-10042.2%

Totals vs. Vegas

over / under

76-9743.9%

50-58-246.3%

Best bets

3+ pt spread gaps, 4+ pt total gaps

73-82-347.1%

11.4

Average miss, margin

points, lower is better

12.1

13.7

Average miss, total

points, lower is better

14.0

107

Closer to the final margin

games

Agree or split

on the side

Same side

53%

91 of 173 games

When they agree

42-48-1

46.7% together

When they split

41–37

games won: BEAVER – Sam

Race against the spread

games over .500 on sides

● BEAVER● Sam

Game by game

projected score (away–home) and each side’s picks, graded

Wk	Game	BEAVER	Sam	Closer
8	Houston at Utah Final 13–21	27–34 Utah −6.5WOver 57.5L	25–29 Houston +6.5LUnder 57.5W	BEAVER
8	NDSU at New Mexico Final 16–21	15–27 New Mexico −4.5WOver 40.5L	15–27 New Mexico −4.5WOver 40.5L	BEAVER
8	UTSA at Tulane Final 42–19	28–23 UTSA −3WUnder 51.5L	27–24 Tulane +3LUnder 51.5L	BEAVER
8	Vanderbilt at Kentucky Final 17–34	21–35 Kentucky −10.5WOver 52.5L	17–41 Kentucky −10.5WOver 52.5L	BEAVER
8	Ole Miss at Texas Final 27–34	22–30 Texas −3WUnder 53.5L	24–31 Texas −3WOver 53.5W	BEAVER
8	Iowa State at Arizona Final 3–39	17–32 Arizona −10.5WUnder 51.5W	21–34 Arizona −10.5WOver 51.5L	BEAVER
8	Syracuse at UNC Final 31–30	21–31 North Carolina −9.5LOver 47.5W	18–32 North Carolina −9.5LOver 47.5W	BEAVER
8	USC at Wisconsin Final 7–24	27–26 Wisconsin +3WOver 49.5L	23–29 Wisconsin +3WOver 49.5L	Sam
8	Utah State at Texas State Final 17–20	21–35 Texas State −13.5LUnder 60.5W	20–34 Texas State −13.5LUnder 60.5W	Sam
8	Colorado at OKST Final 24–57	22–27 Colorado +13.5LUnder 56.5L	18–33 Oklahoma State −13.5WUnder 56.5L	Sam
8	VT at Clemson Final 20–16	22–28 Clemson −2.5LOver 48.5L	25–26 Virginia Tech +2.5WOver 48.5L	Sam
8	GAST at ARST Final 32–38	30–28 Arkansas State +2.5WUnder 58.5L	33–22 Georgia State −2.5LUnder 58.5L	BEAVER
8	SDSU at CSU Final 49–56	30–29 Colorado State +1.5WUnder 59.5L	34–32 SDSU −1.5LOver 59.5W	BEAVER
8	Boise State at WSU Final 31–10	33–21 WSU +14.5LOver 53.5L	37–13 Boise State −14.5WUnder 53.5W	Sam
8	SJSU at Nevada Final 13–28	22–28 Over 46.5L	23–25 San José State +6.5LOver 46.5L	BEAVER
8	Louisiana at USM Final 31–35	30–20 Under 52.5L	36–18 Louisiana −10LOver 52.5W	BEAVER
8	Old Dominion at LT Final 0–26	16–30 Louisiana Tech −13.5WOver 44.5L	16–33 Louisiana Tech −13.5WOver 44.5L	Sam
8	EMU at Ohio Final 20–24	20–33 Ohio −10LOver 48.5L	19–32 Ohio −10LOver 48.5L	BEAVER
8	UL Monroe at Troy Final 21–14	20–35 Troy −11.5LOver 49.5L	17–37 Troy −11.5LOver 49.5L	BEAVER
8	Kansas State at ASU Final 17–28	31–27 Kansas State −1.5LOver 52.5L	32–25 Kansas State −1.5LOver 52.5L	BEAVER
8	Texas A&M at Alabama Final 20–31	18–34 Alabama −13.5LOver 50.5W	17–37 Alabama −13.5LOver 50.5W	BEAVER
8	Oklahoma at MSST Final 23–15	26–24 Oklahoma −2.5WOver 47.5L	22–28 MSST +2.5LOver 47.5L	BEAVER
8	Tennessee at SC Final 24–27	28–26 Tennessee +2.5LOver 50.5W	30–26 Tennessee +2.5LOver 50.5W	BEAVER
8	BYU at UCF Final 31–39	29–18 BYU −7.5LOver 43.5W	33–13 BYU −7.5LOver 43.5W	BEAVER
8	BC at Georgia Tech Final 49–27	21–32 Georgia Tech −6LOver 50.5W	26–23 Boston College +6WUnder 50.5L	Sam
8	Iowa at Minnesota Final 10–13	27–15 Iowa −7.5LOver 40.5L	27–18 Iowa −7.5LOver 40.5L	Sam
8	MSU at UCLA Final 10–28	15–35 UCLA −15.5WOver 44.5L	10–39 UCLA −15.5WOver 44.5L	BEAVER
8	North Texas at Navy Final 49–39	33–29 North Texas −3WUnder 62.5L	34–28 North Texas −3WUnder 62.5L	Sam
8	Hawai'i at NIU Final 56–21	24–24 NIU +3.5LUnder 48.5L	26–19 Hawai'i −3.5WUnder 48.5L	Sam
8	SAC at Ball State Final 17–34	20–34 SAC +14.5LOver 51.5L	21–31 SAC +14.5LOver 51.5L	BEAVER
8	BGSU at Buffalo Final 24–31	21–27 Buffalo −3WOver 44.5W	20–28 Buffalo −3WOver 44.5W	BEAVER
8	Oregon at Illinois Final 10–21	33–24 Illinois +10WOver 49.5L	34–22 Oregon −10LOver 49.5L	BEAVER
8	Baylor at Kansas Final 24–25	27–27 Kansas +1.5WOver 53.5L	27–24 Baylor −1.5LUnder 53.5W	BEAVER
8	Akron at Kent State Final 20–35	24–23 Akron +3LUnder 47.5L	21–25 Kent State −3WUnder 47.5L	Sam
8	Miami (OH) at CMU Final 28–27	25–23 CMU +3.5WOver 40.5W	24–24 CMU +3.5WOver 40.5W	BEAVER
8	LSU at Auburn Final 38–17	29–22 LSU −7WUnder 51.5L	30–22 LSU −7WOver 51.5W	BEAVER
8	Texas Tech at Cincinnati Final 24–37	35–23 Texas Tech −11.5LOver 57.5W	33–26 Cincinnati +11.5WOver 57.5W	Sam
8	WVU at TCU Final 24–20	21–35 TCU −10.5LUnder 57.5W	22–30 West Virginia +10.5WUnder 57.5W	Sam
8	California at SMU Final 20–59	18–38 SMU −18.5WOver 55.5W	16–35 SMU −18.5WUnder 55.5L	BEAVER
8	Pittsburgh at Miami Final 23–52	18–38 Miami −20.5WOver 48.5W	17–36 Pittsburgh +20.5LOver 48.5W	BEAVER
8	Indiana at Michigan Final 13–6	26–20 Michigan +7.5WOver 42.5L	28–15 Indiana −7.5LOver 42.5L	BEAVER
8	Rutgers at Northwestern Final 14–42	22–41 Northwestern −15.5WOver 59.5L	14–42 Northwestern −15.5WUnder 59.5W	Sam
8	Rice at FAU Final 49–51	22–33 FAU −8.5LOver 53.5W	24–33 FAU −8.5LOver 53.5W	Sam
8	WMU at Toledo Final 38–45	24–26 WMU +3LOver 47.5W	22–26 Toledo −3WOver 47.5W	Sam
8	NC State at Stanford Final 28–31	34–23 NC State −6.5LOver 55.5W	31–27 Stanford +6.5WOver 55.5W	Sam
8	Air Force at Wyoming Final 14–28	29–21 Air Force −5.5LOver 44.5L	29–17 Air Force −5.5LOver 44.5L	BEAVER
8	Army at Tulsa Final 38–35	27–26 Army +1.5WUnder 54.5L	26–27 Army +1.5WUnder 54.5L	BEAVER
8	Duke at Virginia Final 19–16	23–24 Duke +2.5WOver 46.5L	23–23 Duke +2.5WUnder 46.5W	Sam
8	MASS at UConn Final 16–35	17–35 UConn −14.5WOver 50.5W	23–31 Massachusetts +14.5LOver 50.5W	BEAVER
8	ECU at Memphis Final 34–41	22–32 Memphis −10.5LUnder 54.5L	18–34 Memphis −10.5LUnder 54.5L	BEAVER
8	JMU at App State Final 31–34	34–21 James Madison −11.5LUnder 56.5L	33–19 James Madison −11.5LUnder 56.5L	BEAVER
8	Liberty at KENN Final 34–6	29–18 Liberty −9.5WUnder 50.5W	33–12 Liberty −9.5WUnder 50.5W	Sam
8	NMSU at Sam Houston Final 30–24	22–25 Sam Houston +2.5LOver 45.5W	24–20 NMSU −2.5WUnder 45.5L	Sam
8	USA at Marshall Final 13–20	34–33 Marshall +3WOver 65.5L	36–29 South Alabama −3LUnder 65.5W	BEAVER
8	MTSU at FIU Final 26–23	16–28 FIU −10LUnder 45.5L	14–29 FIU −10LUnder 45.5L	BEAVER
8	MOST at Delaware Final 38–61	23–29 Delaware −3WUnder 52.5L	22–29 Delaware −3WUnder 52.5L	Sam
7	Nebraska at Oregon Final 14–17	20–32 Oregon −7LUnder 51.5W	27–31 Nebraska +7WOver 51.5L	Sam
7	Wake Forest at California Final 41–7	32–21 Wake Forest −10WUnder 53.5W	37–19 Wake Forest −10WOver 53.5L	Sam
7	Fresno State at SDSU Final 23–26	27–21 SDSU +7.5WOver 45.5W	33–19 Fresno State −7.5LOver 45.5W	BEAVER
7	New Mexico at Hawai'i Final 21–10	32–18 Hawai'i +14.5WOver 44.5L	36–9 New Mexico −14.5LOver 44.5L	BEAVER
7	Utah at Colorado Final 27–24	32–14 Utah −14.5LUnder 49.5L	31–12 Utah −14.5LUnder 49.5L	BEAVER
7	Ohio at SAC Final 48–7	33–16 Ohio −15.5WOver 46.5W	33–16 Ohio −15.5WOver 46.5W	Sam
7	SJSU at UTEP Final 24–11	29–21 San José State −7WOver 45.5L	31–18 San José State −7WOver 45.5L	Sam
7	Navy at UTSA Final 34–38	19–35 UTSA −6.5LUnder 54.5L	21–32 UTSA −6.5LUnder 54.5L	Sam
7	LT at UL Monroe Final 24–0	36–19 Louisiana Tech −15.5WOver 55.5L	43–21 Louisiana Tech −15.5WOver 55.5L	Sam
7	Kentucky at Oklahoma Final 21–13	18–26 Oklahoma −6.5LOver 43.5L	26–26 Kentucky +6.5WOver 43.5L	Sam
7	Notre Dame at BYU Final 24–28	29–21 BYU +10.5WOver 46.5W	25–22 BYU +10.5WOver 46.5W	Sam
7	OKST at Houston Final 32–35	21–38 Houston −4.5LUnder 62.5L	26–32 Houston −4.5LUnder 62.5L	Sam
7	Louisville at Syracuse Final 34–26	34–24 Syracuse +14.5WOver 55.5W	37–24 Syracuse +14.5WOver 55.5W	BEAVER
7	Wisconsin at UCLA Final 7–17	19–31 UCLA −2.5WOver 42.5L	21–32 UCLA −2.5WOver 42.5L	Sam
7	Arkansas at Vanderbilt Final 31–21	22–28 Vanderbilt −6LOver 49.5W	22–30 Vanderbilt −6LOver 49.5W	BEAVER
7	TCU at Baylor Final 17–6	20–26 Baylor −5.5LUnder 48.5W	16–25 Baylor −5.5LUnder 48.5W	BEAVER
7	FSU at Miami Final 35–43	18–38 Florida State +20.5WUnder 56.5L	16–40 Miami −20.5L	BEAVER
7	Kent State at USF Final 2–29	15–35 Kent State +20.5LOver 45.5L	9–31 South Florida −20.5WUnder 45.5W	Sam
7	Nevada at NDSU Final 17–31	18–27 Nevada +14.5WOver 42.5W	18–30 Nevada +14.5WOver 42.5W	Sam
7	ARST at USM Final 23–13	29–28 Southern Miss +6.5LUnder 62.5W	31–29 Southern Miss +6.5LUnder 62.5W	Sam
7	WSU at Oregon State Final 30–48	15–35 Oregon State −18.5LUnder 52.5L	10–41 Oregon State −18.5LUnder 52.5L	BEAVER
7	Troy at Louisiana Final 6–33	21–29 Louisiana −3WOver 48.5L	23–29 Louisiana −3WOver 48.5L	BEAVER
7	Tulsa at Rice Final 38–17	24–23 Rice +4.5LOver 46.5W	27–23 Tulsa −4.5WOver 46.5W	Sam
7	Auburn at Georgia Final 27–24	12–36 Georgia −19.5LUnder 49.5L	14–40 Georgia −19.5LOver 49.5W	BEAVER
7	Missouri at Ole Miss Final 3–31	25–30 Missouri +5.5LUnder 58.5W	31–28 Missouri +5.5LOver 58.5L	BEAVER
7	Alabama at Tennessee Final 10–26	31–22 Alabama −7.5LOver 50.5L	33–23 Alabama −7.5LOver 50.5L	BEAVER
7	ASU at Texas Tech Final 25–53	17–37 Texas Tech −15.5WOver 50.5W	22–34 Arizona State +15.5LOver 50.5W	BEAVER
7	Georgia Tech at VT Final 24–34	26–32 Georgia Tech +8.5LOver 56.5W	19–35 Virginia Tech −8.5WUnder 56.5L	BEAVER
7	UNC at Duke Final 24–20	23–24 North Carolina +3WOver 46.5L	21–22 North Carolina +3WUnder 46.5W	BEAVER
7	Penn State at Michigan Final 18–21	16–28 Michigan −6.5LOver 42.5L	21–22 Penn State +6.5WOver 42.5L	Sam
7	NIU at Wyoming Final 23–41	20–26 NIU +7.5LOver 41.5W	15–25 Wyoming −7.5WUnder 41.5L	Sam
7	UNLV at Air Force Final 31–41	22–27 Air Force −1.5WOver 47.5W	24–22 UNLV +1.5LUnder 47.5L	BEAVER
7	Toledo at EMU Final 34–14	29–22 Toledo −6.5WUnder 52.5W	33–22 Toledo −6.5WOver 52.5L	Sam
7	Akron at Miami (OH) Final 14–34	22–31 Akron +10LOver 46.5W	18–34 Miami (OH) −10WOver 46.5W	Sam
7	WMU at CMU Final 21–14	27–14 WMU −7PUnder 42.5W	23–19 CMU +7PUnder 42.5W	Sam
7	Charlotte at Temple Final 38–31	16–34 Charlotte +19.5WOver 46.5W	15–36 Temple −19.5LOver 46.5W	BEAVER
7	MASS at Buffalo Final 18–25	21–28 Buffalo −7POver 42.5W	26–21 Massachusetts +7POver 42.5W	BEAVER
7	Rutgers at Maryland Final 37–30	25–29 Rutgers +5.5WUnder 55.5L	24–37 Maryland −5.5LOver 55.5W	BEAVER
7	MSST at LSU Final 0–31	21–34 MSST +17.5LUnder 55.5W	29–34 MSST +17.5LOver 55.5L	BEAVER
7	Florida at Texas Final 27–24	18–34 Texas −11.5LOver 51.5L	26–35 Florida +11.5WOver 51.5L	Sam
7	Cincinnati at WVU Final 42–45	32–29 Cincinnati +1.5LUnder 63.5L	32–31 Cincinnati +1.5LUnder 63.5L	Sam
7	Kansas at Kansas State Final 24–35	25–28 Kansas +3.5LUnder 55.5L	25–27 Kansas +3.5LUnder 55.5L	BEAVER
7	Pittsburgh at BC Final 21–27	26–14 Pittsburgh −6.5LUnder 42.5L	30–16 Pittsburgh −6.5LOver 42.5W	BEAVER
7	Virginia at SMU Final 13–23	20–29 Virginia +9.5LUnder 51.5W	22–32 SMU −9.5WOver 51.5L	Sam
7	Ohio State at Indiana Final 19–15	28–23 Ohio State −3WOver 50.5L	27–26 Indiana +3LOver 50.5L	BEAVER
7	Northwestern at MSU Final 24–21	32–21 Northwestern −7LOver 49.5L	33–16 Northwestern −7LUnder 49.5W	BEAVER
7	FAU at Army Final 24–56	23–30 Army −2.5WUnder 55.5L	26–28 Under 55.5L	BEAVER
7	Ball State at BGSU Final 32–31	21–24 Ball State +6.5WUnder 46.5L	22–30 Bowling Green −6.5LOver 46.5W	BEAVER
7	GAST at JMU Final 22–49	24–35 James Madison −9.5WOver 58.5W	23–31 Georgia State +9.5LUnder 58.5L	BEAVER
7	Washington at Purdue Final 38–26	24–29 Purdue −3.5LOver 50.5W	24–30 Purdue −3.5LOver 50.5W	BEAVER
7	App State at CCU Final 35–32	26–24 App State −1.5WOver 48.5W	26–22 App State −1.5WUnder 48.5L	Sam
7	Memphis at Tulane Final 17–31	27–24 Tulane +7WUnder 55.5W	32–17 Memphis −7LUnder 55.5W	BEAVER
7	CSU at Texas State Final 27–66	27–43 Texas State −14WUnder 70.5L	30–42 Colorado State +14LOver 70.5W	BEAVER
7	ECU at UAB Final 17–30	27–21 East Carolina −5.5LOver 47.5L	26–21 UAB +5.5WUnder 47.5W	Sam
7	GASO at Old Dominion Final 23–15	25–19 GASO −3.5WUnder 47.5W	27–23 GASO −3.5WOver 47.5L	BEAVER
7	WKU at Sam Houston Final 16–3	26–27 Sam Houston +1.5LOver 52.5L	21–31 Sam Houston +1.5LUnder 52.5W	BEAVER
7	KENN at MOST Final 21–24	27–22 Kennesaw State −3LUnder 52.5W	28–22 Kennesaw State −3LUnder 52.5W	BEAVER
7	FIU at JXST Final 24–27	20–26 JXST −3POver 43.5W	20–21 FIU +3PUnder 43.5L	Sam
7	Delaware at MTSU Final 30–33	27–22 Delaware −1.5LOver 47.5W	28–19 Delaware −1.5LUnder 47.5L	BEAVER
6	Hawai'i at ASU Final 12–30	16–39 Arizona State −21LOver 50.5L	16–36 Hawai'i +21WOver 50.5L	Sam
6	Boise State at Fresno State Final 38–31	29–20 Boise State −7POver 48.5W	26–22 Fresno State +7PUnder 48.5L	BEAVER
6	Kansas at Utah Final 24–41	16–34 Utah −15.5WUnder 50.5L	15–33 Utah −15.5WUnder 50.5L	Sam
6	Minnesota at Purdue Final 13–41	30–26 Minnesota −2.5LOver 50.5W	32–23 Minnesota −2.5LOver 50.5W	BEAVER
6	Georgia at Alabama Final 20–17	29–32 Georgia +2.5WOver 51.5L	32–35 Alabama −2.5LOver 51.5L	BEAVER
6	Syracuse at Virginia Final 25–28	21–29 Syracuse +11.5WUnder 49.5L	22–30 Syracuse +11.5WOver 49.5W	BEAVER
6	USC at Penn State Final 31–23	28–25 USC +2.5WUnder 54.5W	26–29 Penn State −2.5LOver 54.5L	BEAVER
6	Air Force at NIU Final 28–7	27–24 NIU +7LOver 47.5L	34–17 Air Force −7WOver 47.5L	Sam
6	JMU at GASO Final 27–24	29–19 James Madison −7.5LUnder 51.5W	34–18 James Madison −7.5LOver 51.5L	BEAVER
6	Louisiana at LT Final 31–32	26–25 Louisiana +3WOver 48.5W	25–29 Louisiana Tech −3LOver 48.5W	BEAVER
6	LSU at Kentucky Final 34–35	29–21 Kentucky +8.5WUnder 50.5L	34–25 LSU −8.5LOver 50.5W	BEAVER
6	UAB at Memphis Final 13–38	21–37 Memphis −14.5WOver 54.5L	15–39 Memphis −14.5WUnder 54.5W	Sam
6	Nevada at UTEP Final 30–13	30–22 UTEP +10LOver 49.5L	36–22 Nevada −10WOver 49.5L	Sam
6	NDSU at UNLV Final 7–13	21–26 UNLV +2.5W	23–23 UNLV +2.5WUnder 47.5W	BEAVER
6	CCU at Marshall Final 27–21	27–30 CCU +4.5WUnder 58.5W	24–28 CCU +4.5WUnder 58.5W	BEAVER
6	SDSU at Oregon State Final 14–66	16–29 SDSU +16.5LUnder 52.5L	17–37 Oregon State −16.5WOver 52.5W	Sam
6	Tennessee at Arkansas Final 24–17	34–20 Tennessee −13.5LOver 51.5L	34–15 Tennessee −13.5LUnder 51.5W	BEAVER
6	Maryland at Ohio State Final 16–45	10–46 Ohio State −33.5LUnder 56.5L	11–47 Ohio State −33.5LOver 56.5W	BEAVER
6	UConn at Temple Final 34–20	26–30 Temple −3.5LOver 54.5L	24–32 Temple −3.5LOver 54.5L	BEAVER
6	Texas at Oklahoma Final 24–27	24–12 Texas −7.5LUnder 39.5L	26–16 Texas −7.5LOver 39.5W	Sam
6	Ole Miss at Vanderbilt Final 52–17	31–25 Vanderbilt +9.5LOver 54.5W	35–25 Ole Miss −9.5WOver 54.5W	Sam
6	Houston at Kansas State Final 35–16	29–27 Houston +2.5WOver 54.5L	28–25 Houston +2.5WUnder 54.5W	BEAVER
6	Duke at Georgia Tech Final 25–28	29–25 Georgia Tech +6.5WOver 45.5W	33–13 Duke −6.5LOver 45.5W	BEAVER
6	Stanford at Notre Dame Final 7–58	7–49 Notre Dame −39.5WOver 54.5W	8–46 Stanford +39.5LUnder 54.5L	BEAVER
6	VT at California Final 20–25	31–26 California +10WOver 53.5L	33–23 Virginia Tech −10LOver 53.5L	BEAVER
6	Illinois at MSU Final 38–37	26–24 Michigan State +2.5WOver 48.5W	23–25 Michigan State +2.5WUnder 48.5L	BEAVER
6	UCLA at Oregon Final 17–15	21–36 Oregon −10.5LUnder 57.5W	33–32 UCLA +10.5WOver 57.5L	Sam
6	Charlotte at North Texas Final 10–50	18–47 Charlotte +29.5LOver 58.5W	16–46 Charlotte +29.5LOver 58.5W	Sam
6	Tulsa at Navy Final 26–34	23–25 Navy −1.5WOver 47.5W	26–22 Tulsa +1.5LOver 47.5W	BEAVER
6	EMU at Akron Final 25–23	28–25 Akron +5.5WOver 51.5L	29–22 EMU −5.5LUnder 51.5W	BEAVER
6	Buffalo at Toledo Final 23–8	17–45 Toledo −18.5LOver 55.5L	13–47 Toledo −18.5LOver 55.5L	BEAVER
6	CMU at Ohio Final 14–31	22–29 Ohio −2.5WOver 45.5L	25–26 CMU +2.5LOver 45.5L	BEAVER
6	Kent State at WMU Final 7–38	13–31 WMU −14W	11–29 WMU −14WUnder 43.5L	Sam
6	Miami (OH) at MASS Final 20–19	31–22 Miami (OH) −5.5LOver 44.5L	22–31 Massachusetts +5.5WOver 44.5L	BEAVER
6	Rice at ECU Final 12–28	17–32 East Carolina −10WOver 46.5L	19–29 Rice +10LOver 46.5L	BEAVER
6	Old Dominion at App State Final 10–3	17–25 Old Dominion +10WUnder 46.5W	21–36 App State −10LOver 46.5L	BEAVER
6	SC at Florida Final 38–19	25–31 South Carolina +10.5WUnder 58.5W	31–43 Florida −10.5LOver 58.5L	BEAVER
6	Ball State at Northwestern Final 14–45	11–47 Northwestern −35.5LOver 53.5W	3–50 Northwestern −35.5LUnder 53.5L	BEAVER
6	Texas A&M at Missouri Final 6–27	23–26 Texas A&M +3.5LUnder 50.5W	18–34 Missouri −3.5WOver 50.5L	Sam
6	Arizona at WVU Final 52–31	33–26 Arizona −3.5WUnder 60.5L	31–29 West Virginia +3.5LUnder 60.5L	BEAVER
6	UCF at OKST Final 28–42	23–25 UCF +10.5LUnder 53.5L	20–31 Oklahoma State −10.5WUnder 53.5L	Sam
6	UNC at Pittsburgh Final 21–17	21–29 Pittsburgh −3.5LOver 46.5L	16–32 Pittsburgh −3.5LOver 46.5L	BEAVER
6	Wake Forest at NC State Final 38–14	28–25 NC State +3.5LUnder 56.5W	38–22 Wake Forest −3.5WOver 56.5L	Sam
6	Indiana at Nebraska Final 20–17	28–24 Nebraska +8.5WOver 48.5L	33–25 Nebraska +8.5WOver 48.5L	BEAVER
6	Tulane at Army Final 17–20	21–28 Army −3.5LOver 48.5L	25–20 Tulane +3.5WUnder 48.5W	BEAVER
6	SAC at BGSU Final 10–38	17–24 SAC +8.5LUnder 43.5L	20–25 SAC +8.5LOver 43.5W	BEAVER
6	Iowa State at BYU Final 10–24	18–34 BYU −10.5WOver 46.5L	17–33 BYU −10.5WOver 46.5L	Sam
6	Iowa at Washington Final 41–24	23–18 Iowa +2.5WUnder 41.5L	21–18 Iowa +2.5WUnder 41.5L	BEAVER
6	WSU at Utah State Final 16–17	19–25 Over 43.5L	14–25 Utah State −5.5LUnder 43.5W	BEAVER
6	Wyoming at SJSU Final 16–13	19–24 San José State −4.5LOver 42.5L	16–26 San José State −4.5LUnder 42.5W	BEAVER
6	FSU at Louisville Final 20–44	28–33 Louisville −3.5WOver 59.5W	31–32 Florida State +3.5LOver 59.5W	BEAVER
6	USF at UTSA Final 24–31	21–29 UTSA −7PUnder 50.5L	19–26 Under 50.5L	Sam
6	USA at ARST Final 56–49	27–33 Arkansas State −3LUnder 60.5L	29–28 South Alabama +3WUnder 60.5L	Sam
6	Sam Houston at Liberty Final 3–35	19–32 Sam Houston +13.5LUnder 52.5W	14–35 Liberty −13.5WUnder 52.5W	Sam
6	MOST at WKU Final 13–34	23–28 WKU −1.5WUnder 56.5W	30–27 Missouri State +1.5LOver 56.5L	BEAVER
6	NMSU at FIU Final 3–22	18–24 NMSU +6.5LUnder 45.5W	18–26 FIU −6.5WUnder 45.5W	Sam
6	JXST at KENN Final 27–26	25–23 Kennesaw State +3WUnder 48.5L	27–18 JXST −3LUnder 48.5L	BEAVER
6	USM at Troy Final 34–55	22–25 Southern Miss +9.5LUnder 51.5L	16–32 Troy −9.5WUnder 51.5L	Sam

Both are graded against the same Vegas line, the one shown on the game cards. Sam’s picks that first appeared after kickoff are left out. Sam’s picks come from Sam’s projected score, the same way BEAVER’s do. Best bets are picks at least 3 points off the Vegas spread or 4 off the total. 52.4% breaks even at standard odds.