College football scores › Week 7 › Georgia Tech at Virginia Tech
BEAVER GT +8.5, lostBEAVER Over 56.5, wonBEAVER had VT 66% to win
BEAVER against the market
Locked at kickoff, graded on the closing line| BEAVER | Sam | Market | Result | Call | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score (GT–VT) | 26–32 | 19–35 | – | 24–34 | |
| Spread | VT −6.5 | VT −15.5 | VT −8.5 | VT by 10 | GT +8.5 ✗ |
| Total | 58.5 | 54.1 | 56.5 | 58 | Over 56.5 ✓ |
| VT win chance | 66% | – | −355 | Won |
GT by 14+
10%
GT by 1–13
24%
VT by 1–13
33%
VT by 14+
32%
Spread: 2.0 pts better than Vegas for Georgia Tech (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 2.0 pts above Vegas (51% historically). Opened VT −10.
Tale of the tape
BEAVER Stats, opponent-adjusted, entering the game. Rank among 138 FBS teams.Efficiency
+0.063 #36Offense EPA / play+0.101 #25
+0.128 #110Defense EPA / play allowed+0.075 #91
+3.6% #36Offense success rate+4.8% #21
+3.0% #91Defense success rate allowed+0.7% #73
+0.111 #37Rushing EPA / play+0.047 #63
+0.043 #46Passing EPA / play+0.165 #23
+0.072 #94Rush defense EPA allowed+0.027 #71
+0.198 #116Pass defense EPA allowed+0.129 #95
−0.6 #67Scoring offense (pts vs avg)+3.6 #38
+1.9 #78Scoring defense (pts vs avg)+2.7 #84
Situational
−0.1% #52Passing-down success (3rd & long)+6.9% #9
+10.3% #135Passing-down success allowed−3.0% #35
−0.10 #71Points per drive+0.83 #22
+0.16 #72Points per drive allowed+0.26 #77
Trenches
+0.31 #36Line yards per rush−0.02 #90
+0.07 #77Line yards per rush allowed−0.86 #4
−1.1% #80Runs stuffed at the line+1.6% #114
−2.1% #100Opponent runs stuffed+6.5% #9
−2.2% #47Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU)−3.2% #33
−1.2% #87Havoc created+3.4% #12
Big plays
+0.016 #68Rushing explosiveness+0.090 #35
+0.103 #73Passing explosiveness+0.069 #87
+0.15 #38Open-field yards per rush−0.14 #68
+0.248 #136Pass explosiveness allowed−0.084 #31
Style and schedule
54% #90Run rate52% #108
−4.3 #48Strength of schedule (avg opponent)−15.5 #122
Georgia Tech: last 5 games
Virginia Tech: last 5 games
| L20-25 | Missed | |
| L33-35 | Missed | |
| W21-14 | Missed | |
| W35-26 | Covered | |
| W44-21 | Covered |
Rating trend
BEAVER Stats: net EPA per play against an average team, entering each weekGTVT
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Closing lines
the last line before kickoff| Book | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | VT −8.5 | 56.5 | GT +280 · VT −355 |
| BEAVER fair line | VT −6.5 | 58.5 | GT +190 · VT −190 |
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Tendencies
Season to date. Against the spread and over/under use closing lines.| GT | VT | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-5 | Record | 6-2 |
| 1-3 | Conference | 3-2 |
| 2-3 | Home | 3-1 |
| 0-2 | Away | 3-1 |
| 1-6 | Against the spread | 5-3 |
| 5-2 | Over/under | 5-3 |
| 26.7 / 30.3 | Points for / against | 35.0 / 20.5 |
| -3.6 | Avg margin | +14.5 |
| -7.7 | Avg vs. the spread | +1.1 |
| 59.7 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 66.0 |