College football scores › Week 6 › South Florida at UTSA
BEAVER UTSA −7, pushBEAVER Under 50.5, lostBEAVER had UTSA 69% to win
BEAVER against the market
Locked at kickoff, graded on the closing line| BEAVER | Sam | Market | Result | Call | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score (USF–UTSA) | 21–29 | 19–26 | – | 24–31 | |
| Spread | UTSA −8.0 | UTSA −7.0 | UTSA −7 | UTSA by 7 | UTSA −7 push |
| Total | 49.2 | 44.4 | 50.5 | 55 | Under 50.5 ✗ |
| UTSA win chance | 69% | – | −230 | Won |
USF by 14+
8%
USF by 1–13
22%
UTSA by 1–13
34%
UTSA by 14+
35%
Spread: 1.0 pts better than Vegas for UTSA (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 1.3 pts below Vegas (52% historically).
Tale of the tape
BEAVER Stats, opponent-adjusted, entering the game. Rank among 138 FBS teams.Efficiency
−0.058 #89Offense EPA / play+0.016 #56
+0.043 #73Defense EPA / play allowed−0.039 #41
+1.0% #56Offense success rate−0.5% #76
+3.0% #94Defense success rate allowed−0.6% #59
+0.060 #59Rushing EPA / play+0.091 #43
−0.183 #111Passing EPA / play−0.080 #86
−0.108 #20Rush defense EPA allowed+0.035 #75
+0.237 #128Pass defense EPA allowed−0.049 #33
−4.3 #88Scoring offense (pts vs avg)+1.3 #54
−0.1 #63Scoring defense (pts vs avg)+1.1 #75
Situational
+0.3% #51Passing-down success (3rd & long)−8.8% #124
+0.2% #78Passing-down success allowed−0.4% #64
−0.54 #94Points per drive−0.16 #74
+0.24 #81Points per drive allowed−0.06 #58
Trenches
−0.03 #96Line yards per rush−0.08 #102
−0.09 #50Line yards per rush allowed+0.12 #88
+0.8% #106Runs stuffed at the line−0.4% #91
+3.8% #21Opponent runs stuffed−2.6% #109
−0.6% #84Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU)−2.8% #39
+0.5% #48Havoc created−2.3% #106
Big plays
−0.025 #86Rushing explosiveness−0.007 #79
−0.144 #135Passing explosiveness+0.008 #109
−0.27 #87Open-field yards per rush+0.04 #47
+0.003 #68Pass explosiveness allowed−0.034 #56
Style and schedule
57% #51Run rate56% #61
−17.2 #128Strength of schedule (avg opponent)−5.6 #49
South Florida: last 5 games
| L13-17 | Missed | |
| W14-6 | Missed | |
| W59-17 | Covered | |
| W28-24 | Covered | |
| W19-9 | Missed |
UTSA: last 5 games
| W16-14 | Missed | |
| W59-45 | Missed | |
| L6-30 | Covered | |
| W31-26 | Covered | |
| W45-16 | Covered |
Rating trend
BEAVER Stats: net EPA per play against an average team, entering each weekUSFUTSA
Loading the thread…
No box score for this game yet.
Closing lines
the last line before kickoff| Book | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | UTSA −7 | 50.5 | USF +190 · UTSA −230 |
| BEAVER fair line | UTSA −8 | 49.2 | USF +227 · UTSA −227 |
Loading…
Tendencies
Season to date. Against the spread and over/under use closing lines.| USF | UTSA | |
|---|---|---|
| 5-2 | Record | 7-1 |
| 1-2 | Conference | 4-0 |
| 3-1 | Home | 4-0 |
| 2-1 | Away | 3-1 |
| 3-4 | Against the spread | 5-3 |
| 3-4 | Over/under | 5-3 |
| 26.6 / 15.1 | Points for / against | 33.5 / 26.0 |
| +11.4 | Avg margin | +7.5 |
| -1.0 | Avg vs. the spread | +2.8 |
| 57.1 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 65.1 |