College football scores › Week 7 › Rutgers at Maryland
BEAVER RUTG +5.5, wonBEAVER Under 55.5, lostBEAVER had MD 60% to win
BEAVER against the market
Locked at kickoff, graded on the closing line| BEAVER | Sam | Market | Result | Call | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score (RUTG–MD) | 25–29 | 24–37 | – | 37–30 | |
| Spread | MD −4.0 | MD −12.7 | MD −5.5 | RUTG by 7 | RUTG +5.5 ✓ |
| Total | 54.6 | 60.8 | 55.5 | 67 | Under 55.5 ✗ |
| MD win chance | 60% | – | −218 | Lost |
RUTG by 14+
13%
RUTG by 1–13
27%
MD by 1–13
33%
MD by 14+
27%
Spread: 1.5 pts better than Vegas for Rutgers (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 0.9 pts below Vegas (52% historically). Opened MD −4.5.
Tale of the tape
BEAVER Stats, opponent-adjusted, entering the game. Rank among 138 FBS teams.Efficiency
−0.022 #76Offense EPA / play−0.073 #96
+0.168 #125Defense EPA / play allowed−0.038 #38
+3.0% #39Offense success rate−2.8% #96
+7.2% #130Defense success rate allowed−0.3% #59
−0.051 #104Rushing EPA / play+0.033 #70
+0.061 #38Passing EPA / play−0.175 #113
+0.202 #135Rush defense EPA allowed−0.002 #54
+0.152 #104Pass defense EPA allowed−0.072 #31
−0.0 #63Scoring offense (pts vs avg)−0.5 #65
+9.2 #126Scoring defense (pts vs avg)+4.4 #96
Situational
+2.4% #34Passing-down success (3rd & long)−1.7% #69
+4.7% #113Passing-down success allowed−0.5% #63
+0.07 #64Points per drive+0.07 #63
+1.04 #118Points per drive allowed+0.51 #99
Trenches
+0.06 #81Line yards per rush+0.01 #88
+0.38 #122Line yards per rush allowed−0.22 #31
−3.0% #51Runs stuffed at the line−1.0% #82
−2.0% #95Opponent runs stuffed+1.0% #56
−0.5% #92Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU)−4.1% #22
−3.9% #131Havoc created−0.4% #64
Big plays
−0.106 #118Rushing explosiveness+0.166 #12
+0.394 #3Passing explosiveness−0.007 #111
−0.29 #86Open-field yards per rush+0.26 #24
−0.051 #44Pass explosiveness allowed−0.033 #54
Style and schedule
56% #58Run rate46% #134
−8.5 #81Strength of schedule (avg opponent)−1.5 #31
Rutgers: last 5 games
| L15-47 | Missed | |
| W58-7 | Covered | |
| L35-42 | Covered | |
| L21-28 | Missed | |
| L21-37 | Missed |
Maryland: last 5 games
| L16-45 | Covered | |
| L23-48 | Missed | |
| L3-54 | Missed | |
| L26-35 | Missed | |
| W38-14 | Covered |
Rating trend
BEAVER Stats: net EPA per play against an average team, entering each weekRUTGMD
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Closing lines
the last line before kickoff| Book | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | MD −5.5 | 55.5 | RUTG +180 · MD −218 |
| BEAVER fair line | MD −4 | 54.6 | RUTG +149 · MD −149 |
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Tendencies
Season to date. Against the spread and over/under use closing lines.| RUTG | MD | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-5 | Record | 2-5 |
| 1-3 | Conference | 0-4 |
| 1-3 | Home | 1-3 |
| 1-2 | Away | 1-2 |
| 3-4 | Against the spread | 3-4 |
| 5-2 | Over/under | 6-1 |
| 28.7 / 33.3 | Points for / against | 28.3 / 33.3 |
| -4.6 | Avg margin | -5.0 |
| -4.9 | Avg vs. the spread | -6.5 |
| 56.9 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 56.9 |