College football scores › Week 7 › San José State at UTEP
BEAVER SJSU −7, wonBEAVER Over 45.5, lostBEAVER had SJSU 69% to win
BEAVER against the market
Locked at kickoff, graded on the closing line| BEAVER | Sam | Market | Result | Call | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score (SJSU–UTEP) | 29–21 | 31–18 | – | 24–11 | |
| Spread | SJSU −7.7 | SJSU −13.5 | SJSU −7 | SJSU by 13 | SJSU −7 ✓ |
| Total | 49.5 | 48.6 | 45.5 | 35 | Over 45.5 ✗ |
| UTEP win chance | 31% | – | +220 | Lost |
SJSU by 14+
35%
SJSU by 1–13
34%
UTEP by 1–13
23%
UTEP by 14+
8%
Spread: 0.7 pts better than Vegas for San José State (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 4.0 pts above Vegas (49% historically). Opened SJSU −10.
Tale of the tape
BEAVER Stats, opponent-adjusted, entering the game. Rank among 138 FBS teams.Efficiency
−0.133 #116Offense EPA / play−0.253 #137
+0.057 #78Defense EPA / play allowed+0.193 #132
−6.6% #127Offense success rate−8.7% #134
+3.9% #104Defense success rate allowed+8.5% #134
−0.147 #130Rushing EPA / play−0.133 #127
−0.070 #86Passing EPA / play−0.318 #131
+0.108 #107Rush defense EPA allowed+0.102 #105
+0.027 #64Pass defense EPA allowed+0.360 #137
−9.1 #114Scoring offense (pts vs avg)−11.8 #130
+5.1 #99Scoring defense (pts vs avg)+14.1 #136
Situational
−11.4% #134Passing-down success (3rd & long)−10.7% #131
−0.2% #68Passing-down success allowed+7.0% #125
−1.30 #128Points per drive−1.24 #122
+0.44 #97Points per drive allowed+2.57 #138
Trenches
−0.20 #114Line yards per rush−0.40 #132
+0.28 #112Line yards per rush allowed+0.12 #92
+2.5% #124Runs stuffed at the line+4.7% #133
−5.0% #131Opponent runs stuffed+0.8% #60
+0.6% #114Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU)+4.0% #136
−1.2% #85Havoc created−3.3% #125
Big plays
−0.076 #107Rushing explosiveness+0.107 #26
+0.022 #105Passing explosiveness+0.157 #52
−0.78 #137Open-field yards per rush−0.37 #99
−0.077 #32Pass explosiveness allowed−0.036 #51
Style and schedule
50% #120Run rate58% #40
−12.4 #107Strength of schedule (avg opponent)−5.9 #59
San José State: last 5 games
| L13-16 | Missed | |
| W20-16 | Covered | |
| L10-26 | Missed | |
| W30-20 | Missed | |
| W27-21 | Covered |
UTEP: last 5 games
| L13-30 | Missed | |
| L7-61 | Missed | |
| L7-33 | Missed | |
| L17-52 | Missed | |
| W51-10 | Covered |
Rating trend
BEAVER Stats: net EPA per play against an average team, entering each weekSJSUUTEP
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Closing lines
the last line before kickoff| Book | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | SJSU −7 | 45.5 | SJSU −270 · UTEP +220 |
| BEAVER fair line | SJSU −7.7 | 49.5 | SJSU −220 · UTEP +220 |
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Tendencies
Season to date. Against the spread and over/under use closing lines.| SJSU | UTEP | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-4 | Record | 1-6 |
| 2-2 | Conference | 0-3 |
| 1-2 | Home | 1-3 |
| 3-2 | Away | 0-3 |
| 4-4 | Against the spread | 1-6 |
| 1-7 | Over/under | 3-4 |
| 20.4 / 22.5 | Points for / against | 15.1 / 37.3 |
| -2.1 | Avg margin | -22.1 |
| +0.2 | Avg vs. the spread | -8.0 |
| 63.9 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 44.3 |