College football scores › Week 8 › NC State at Stanford
BEAVER NCSU −6.5, lostBEAVER Over 55.5, wonBEAVER had NCSU 75% to win
BEAVER against the market
Locked at kickoff, graded on the closing line| BEAVER | Sam | Market | Result | Call | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score (NCSU–STAN) | 34–23 | 31–27 | – | 28–31 | |
| Spread | NCSU −10.8 | NCSU −4.7 | NCSU −6.5 | STAN by 3 | NCSU −6.5 ✗ |
| Total | 56.3 | 57.8 | 55.5 | 59 | Over 55.5 ✓ |
| STAN win chance | 25% | – | +235 | Won |
NCSU by 14+
42%
NCSU by 1–13
33%
STAN by 1–13
19%
STAN by 14+
6%
Spread: 4.3 pts better than Vegas for NC State (sides with a gap this size have won 54% in the backtest). Total: 0.8 pts above Vegas (52% historically). Opened NCSU −7.5.
Tale of the tape
BEAVER Stats, opponent-adjusted, entering the game. Rank among 138 FBS teams.Efficiency
+0.066 #34Offense EPA / play−0.021 #77
+0.078 #88Defense EPA / play allowed+0.170 #124
+1.7% #52Offense success rate−3.6% #100
+1.3% #81Defense success rate allowed+3.8% #100
−0.056 #106Rushing EPA / play−0.002 #84
+0.172 #16Passing EPA / play−0.035 #72
−0.050 #35Rush defense EPA allowed+0.195 #133
+0.212 #121Pass defense EPA allowed+0.131 #98
+3.6 #38Scoring offense (pts vs avg)−6.1 #100
+2.9 #82Scoring defense (pts vs avg)+8.1 #119
Situational
+5.9% #15Passing-down success (3rd & long)−9.2% #129
+1.4% #85Passing-down success allowed+7.8% #130
+0.78 #24Points per drive−0.66 #101
+0.34 #81Points per drive allowed+1.08 #121
Trenches
−0.13 #109Line yards per rush−0.08 #102
−0.30 #24Line yards per rush allowed+0.37 #121
+1.6% #117Runs stuffed at the line+1.1% #108
+4.6% #19Opponent runs stuffed−4.0% #119
−1.1% #71Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU)−2.0% #53
−0.1% #58Havoc created−2.7% #111
Big plays
−0.065 #101Rushing explosiveness+0.035 #62
+0.092 #80Passing explosiveness+0.099 #72
−0.06 #59Open-field yards per rush−0.41 #104
+0.076 #94Pass explosiveness allowed−0.043 #43
Style and schedule
54% #85Run rate50% #123
−4.7 #61Strength of schedule (avg opponent)+1.9 #16
NC State: last 5 games
| L14-38 | Missed | |
| W31-28 | Covered | |
| W41-31 | Missed | |
| L31-35 | Missed | |
| W73-0 | Covered |
Stanford: last 5 games
| W34-7 | Missed | |
| L7-58 | Missed | |
| L3-57 | Missed | |
| W34-27 | Covered | |
| L7-35 | Missed |
Rating trend
BEAVER Stats: net EPA per play against an average team, entering each weekNCSUSTAN
Loading the thread…
No box score for this game yet.
Closing lines
the last line before kickoff| Book | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | NCSU −6.5 | 55.5 | NCSU −290 · STAN +235 |
| BEAVER fair line | NCSU −10.8 | 56.3 | NCSU −298 · STAN +298 |
Loading…
Tendencies
Season to date. Against the spread and over/under use closing lines.| NCSU | STAN | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-4 | Record | 4-4 |
| 1-3 | Conference | 2-3 |
| 3-1 | Home | 4-1 |
| 0-3 | Away | 0-3 |
| 2-5 | Against the spread | 3-5 |
| 5-2 | Over/under | 6-2 |
| 32.3 / 28.1 | Points for / against | 19.9 / 35.5 |
| +4.1 | Avg margin | -15.6 |
| -1.1 | Avg vs. the spread | -7.9 |
| 60.6 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 52.6 |