BEAVER
College football scores › Week 7 › Virginia at SMU
Virginia4-4away
13
FinalGerald J. Ford Stadium, 61°, wind 9 mph
SMUNo. 196-1home
23
BEAVER UVA +9.5, lostBEAVER Under 51.5, wonBEAVER had SMU 72% to win

BEAVER against the market

Locked at kickoff, graded on the closing line
BEAVERSamMarketResultCall
Score (UVA–SMU)20–2922–32–13–23
SpreadSMU −9.1SMU −10.0SMU −9.5SMU by 10UVA +9.5 ✗
Total49.053.351.536Under 51.5 ✓
SMU win chance72%–−360Won
UVA by 14+
7%
UVA by 1–13
21%
SMU by 1–13
34%
SMU by 14+
38%

Spread: 0.4 pts better than Vegas for Virginia (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 2.5 pts below Vegas (51% historically). Opened SMU −7.5.

Tale of the tape

BEAVER Stats, opponent-adjusted, entering the game. Rank among 138 FBS teams.
Efficiency
+0.022 #51Offense EPA / play+0.045 #44
+0.015 #65Defense EPA / play allowed−0.013 #44
+1.1% #58Offense success rate+5.1% #19
−1.3% #42Defense success rate allowed−2.7% #35
+0.112 #36Rushing EPA / play−0.027 #94
+0.005 #54Passing EPA / play+0.138 #26
+0.020 #67Rush defense EPA allowed−0.038 #40
+0.098 #84Pass defense EPA allowed+0.012 #58
−1.0 #69Scoring offense (pts vs avg)+2.2 #50
−4.1 #32Scoring defense (pts vs avg)−0.2 #61
Situational
−6.2% #110Passing-down success (3rd & long)+3.5% #27
−8.1% #5Passing-down success allowed−3.5% #30
+0.21 #55Points per drive+0.19 #56
−0.48 #32Points per drive allowed+0.05 #63
Trenches
+0.53 #11Line yards per rush−0.16 #112
+0.12 #91Line yards per rush allowed−0.32 #24
−6.5% #11Runs stuffed at the line+2.1% #120
−2.1% #98Opponent runs stuffed+4.3% #20
−2.8% #36Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU)−1.7% #64
−0.1% #56Havoc created+3.4% #11
Big plays
−0.009 #81Rushing explosiveness−0.030 #91
−0.060 #125Passing explosiveness+0.144 #59
−0.58 #125Open-field yards per rush−0.15 #69
+0.025 #69Pass explosiveness allowed+0.158 #124
Style and schedule
58% #36Run rate51% #117
−8.5 #82Strength of schedule (avg opponent)−9.8 #91

Virginia: last 5 games

W28-25
vsSyracuse
Missed
L7-38
atFlorida State
Missed
W42-3
vsDelaware
Covered
L27-38
vsWest Virginia
Missed
W59-3
vsNorfolk State
Covered

SMU: last 5 games

W25-16
vsBoston College
Missed
W34-24
vsMissouri State
Missed
L31-41
atLouisville
Missed
W56-10
vsUC Davis
Covered
W27-24
atFlorida State
Push

Rating trend

BEAVER Stats: net EPA per play against an average team, entering each week
−0.02+0.06+0.15+0.24+0.33Entering week1234567Virginia · 1: +0.03Virginia · 2: +0.14Virginia · 3: +0.18Virginia · 4: +0.09Virginia · 5: +0.10Virginia · 6: +0.03Virginia · 7: +0.01SMU · 1: +0.11SMU · 2: +0.18SMU · 3: +0.30SMU · 4: +0.20SMU · 5: +0.13SMU · 6: +0.07SMU · 7: +0.06
● Virginia● SMU