College football scores › Week 6 › San Diego State at Oregon State
BEAVER SDSU +16.5, lostBEAVER Under 52.5, lostBEAVER had ORST 79% to win
BEAVER against the market
Locked at kickoff, graded on the closing line| BEAVER | Sam | Market | Result | Call | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score (SDSU–ORST) | 16–29 | 17–37 | – | 14–66 | |
| Spread | ORST −12.7 | ORST −20.4 | ORST −16.5 | ORST by 52 | SDSU +16.5 ✗ |
| Total | 45.2 | 54.2 | 52.5 | 80 | Under 52.5 ✗ |
| ORST win chance | 79% | – | −700 | Won |
SDSU by 14+
4%
SDSU by 1–13
17%
ORST by 1–13
32%
ORST by 14+
47%
Spread: 3.8 pts better than Vegas for San Diego State (sides with a gap this size have won 54% in the backtest). Total: 7.3 pts below Vegas (54% historically). Opened ORST −14.5.
Tale of the tape
BEAVER Stats, opponent-adjusted, entering the game. Rank among 138 FBS teams.Efficiency
−0.186 #128Offense EPA / play+0.084 #30
+0.008 #58Defense EPA / play allowed+0.011 #60
−8.0% #133Offense success rate+2.9% #37
+2.5% #89Defense success rate allowed−1.1% #53
−0.042 #104Rushing EPA / play−0.013 #89
−0.331 #135Passing EPA / play+0.064 #40
−0.063 #31Rush defense EPA allowed+0.015 #60
+0.080 #83Pass defense EPA allowed−0.030 #40
−7.6 #105Scoring offense (pts vs avg)+1.7 #51
+0.1 #67Scoring defense (pts vs avg)−1.4 #49
Situational
−8.6% #121Passing-down success (3rd & long)+4.6% #21
−1.5% #52Passing-down success allowed−0.8% #57
−0.96 #108Points per drive+0.36 #45
−0.19 #47Points per drive allowed−0.11 #54
Trenches
+0.06 #81Line yards per rush+0.25 #49
+0.27 #114Line yards per rush allowed+0.09 #81
+0.1% #98Runs stuffed at the line−8.0% #1
−6.6% #136Opponent runs stuffed−3.1% #115
−0.6% #85Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU)−3.5% #25
−2.4% #109Havoc created+0.5% #46
Big plays
+0.117 #28Rushing explosiveness−0.095 #113
+0.133 #57Passing explosiveness+0.181 #37
−0.35 #97Open-field yards per rush−0.11 #65
+0.052 #91Pass explosiveness allowed−0.058 #45
Style and schedule
63% #14Run rate46% #134
−4.9 #43Strength of schedule (avg opponent)−5.9 #53
San Diego State: last 5 games
| W31-29 | Covered | |
| L16-41 | Missed | |
| L13-26 | Missed | |
| L10-28 | Missed | |
| W53-20 | Missed |
Oregon State: last 5 games
| W56-26 | Covered | |
| W33-7 | Covered | |
| W52-17 | Covered | |
| L24-35 | Covered | |
| L20-33 | Covered |
Rating trend
BEAVER Stats: net EPA per play against an average team, entering each weekSDSUORST
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Closing lines
the last line before kickoff| Book | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | ORST −16.5 | 52.5 | SDSU +500 · ORST −700 |
| BEAVER fair line | ORST −12.7 | 45.2 | SDSU +376 · ORST −376 |
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Tendencies
Season to date. Against the spread and over/under use closing lines.| SDSU | ORST | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-5 | Record | 5-2 |
| 2-2 | Conference | 3-0 |
| 3-1 | Home | 3-1 |
| 0-4 | Away | 2-1 |
| 2-6 | Against the spread | 6-1 |
| 6-2 | Over/under | 6-1 |
| 26.5 / 36.1 | Points for / against | 42.7 / 23.1 |
| -9.6 | Avg margin | +19.6 |
| -9.1 | Avg vs. the spread | +16.4 |
| 54.2 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 60.0 |