BEAVER
College football scores › Week 8 › Texas Tech at Cincinnati
Texas TechNo. 136-1away
24
FinalNippert Stadium, 67°, wind 3 mph
Cincinnati5-2home
37
BEAVER TTU −11.5, lostBEAVER Over 57.5, wonBEAVER had TTU 78% to win

BEAVER against the market

Locked at kickoff, graded on the closing line
BEAVERSamMarketResultCall
Score (TTU–CIN)35–2333–26–24–37
SpreadTTU −12.7TTU −7.3TTU −11.5CIN by 13TTU −11.5 ✗
Total58.059.657.561Over 57.5 ✓
CIN win chance22%–+330Won
TTU by 14+
47%
TTU by 1–13
32%
CIN by 1–13
17%
CIN by 14+
5%

Spread: 1.2 pts better than Vegas for Texas Tech (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 0.5 pts above Vegas (52% historically).

Tale of the tape

BEAVER Stats, opponent-adjusted, entering the game. Rank among 138 FBS teams.
Efficiency
+0.042 #42Offense EPA / play+0.133 #19
−0.152 #11Defense EPA / play allowed+0.120 #111
+4.7% #24Offense success rate+2.7% #44
−6.4% #10Defense success rate allowed+4.3% #108
+0.124 #32Rushing EPA / play+0.151 #23
+0.065 #43Passing EPA / play+0.097 #34
−0.130 #17Rush defense EPA allowed+0.085 #96
−0.165 #12Pass defense EPA allowed+0.208 #117
+8.0 #16Scoring offense (pts vs avg)+2.8 #43
−6.4 #23Scoring defense (pts vs avg)+2.1 #77
Situational
+6.8% #11Passing-down success (3rd & long)+1.9% #34
−3.0% #38Passing-down success allowed+3.9% #109
+0.54 #35Points per drive+0.31 #48
−0.81 #23Points per drive allowed+0.36 #83
Trenches
+0.24 #44Line yards per rush+0.45 #18
−0.35 #23Line yards per rush allowed+0.26 #109
−1.1% #81Runs stuffed at the line−4.2% #27
+3.3% #29Opponent runs stuffed−2.0% #102
+0.2% #105Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU)−5.0% #12
+1.7% #28Havoc created−0.5% #66
Big plays
+0.063 #45Rushing explosiveness+0.196 #7
−0.100 #131Passing explosiveness+0.098 #74
+0.33 #14Open-field yards per rush+0.26 #23
+0.006 #66Pass explosiveness allowed−0.081 #33
Style and schedule
55% #66Run rate60% #25
−4.8 #62Strength of schedule (avg opponent)−6.3 #68

Texas Tech: last 5 games

W53-25
vsArizona State
Covered
W29-7
atColorado
Covered
W49-14
vsSam Houston
Covered
W28-26
vsHouston
Missed
W35-24
atOregon State
Missed

Cincinnati: last 5 games

L42-45
atWest Virginia
Missed
L7-34
atArizona
Missed
W31-26
vsKansas State
Covered
W35-31
vsMiami (OH)
Missed
W62-10
vsWestern Carolina
Covered

Rating trend

BEAVER Stats: net EPA per play against an average team, entering each week
−0.03+0.04+0.12+0.20+0.28Entering week12345678Texas Tech · 1: +0.26Texas Tech · 2: +0.20Texas Tech · 3: +0.13Texas Tech · 4: +0.11Texas Tech · 5: +0.16Texas Tech · 6: +0.18Texas Tech · 7: +0.18Texas Tech · 8: +0.19Cincinnati · 1: +0.01Cincinnati · 2: +0.05Cincinnati · 3: +0.04Cincinnati · 4: −0.01Cincinnati · 5: +0.02Cincinnati · 6: −0.01Cincinnati · 7: −0.01Cincinnati · 8: +0.01
● Texas Tech● Cincinnati