BEAVER
College football scores › Week 6 › Houston at Kansas State
HoustonNo. 186-2away
35
FinalBill Snyder Family Stadium, 86°, wind 17 mph
Kansas State4-3home
16
BEAVER HOU +2.5, wonBEAVER Over 54.5, lostBEAVER had HOU 57% to win

BEAVER against the market

Locked at kickoff, graded on the closing line
BEAVERSamMarketResultCall
Score (HOU–KSU)29–2728–25–35–16
SpreadHOU −3.0HOU −2.8KSU −2.5HOU by 19HOU +2.5 ✓
Total56.052.454.551Over 54.5 ✗
KSU win chance43%–−142Lost
HOU by 14+
25%
HOU by 1–13
33%
KSU by 1–13
28%
KSU by 14+
15%

Spread: 5.5 pts better than Vegas for Houston (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 1.5 pts above Vegas (52% historically).

Tale of the tape

BEAVER Stats, opponent-adjusted, entering the game. Rank among 138 FBS teams.
Efficiency
+0.149 #16Offense EPA / play+0.044 #44
+0.012 #61Defense EPA / play allowed+0.021 #64
+10.0% #5Offense success rate+2.1% #46
−0.9% #56Defense success rate allowed−1.5% #45
+0.106 #38Rushing EPA / play+0.124 #28
+0.227 #8Passing EPA / play−0.034 #69
−0.045 #35Rush defense EPA allowed+0.114 #114
+0.064 #79Pass defense EPA allowed−0.004 #49
+7.6 #18Scoring offense (pts vs avg)+4.5 #36
−2.0 #45Scoring defense (pts vs avg)−0.2 #62
Situational
+13.4% #2Passing-down success (3rd & long)+4.2% #25
+0.2% #77Passing-down success allowed+4.0% #104
+1.30 #13Points per drive+0.99 #18
−0.09 #56Points per drive allowed+0.18 #72
Trenches
+0.48 #14Line yards per rush+0.16 #59
−0.27 #25Line yards per rush allowed+0.15 #91
−5.3% #23Runs stuffed at the line−2.1% #67
+1.7% #46Opponent runs stuffed+0.3% #67
−6.0% #5Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU)−4.1% #19
+3.0% #15Havoc created+3.0% #16
Big plays
−0.174 #127Rushing explosiveness+0.085 #38
+0.109 #68Passing explosiveness+0.048 #98
−0.34 #96Open-field yards per rush+0.67 #7
+0.102 #105Pass explosiveness allowed+0.036 #82
Style and schedule
61% #20Run rate54% #85
−8.2 #71Strength of schedule (avg opponent)−15.5 #118

Houston: last 5 games

W27-17
vsUCF
Missed
W42-28
atGeorgia Southern
Missed
L26-28
atTexas Tech
Covered
W77-6
vsSouthern
Covered
W33-20
vsOregon State
Missed

Kansas State: last 4 games

L26-31
atCincinnati
Missed
W31-20
vsTulane
Missed
W34-7
vsWashington State
Covered
W71-3
vsNicholls
Covered

Rating trend

BEAVER Stats: net EPA per play against an average team, entering each week
−0.02+0.03+0.08+0.13+0.18Entering week123456Houston · 1: +0.01Houston · 2: −0.01Houston · 3: +0.08Houston · 4: +0.14Houston · 5: +0.17Houston · 6: +0.14Kansas State · 1: −0.00Kansas State · 2: +0.05Kansas State · 3: +0.08Kansas State · 4: +0.09Kansas State · 5: +0.04Kansas State · 6: +0.02
● Houston● Kansas State