College football scores › Week 8 › North Texas at Navy
BEAVER UNT −3, wonBEAVER Under 62.5, lostBEAVER had UNT 59% to win
BEAVER against the market
Locked at kickoff, graded on the closing line| BEAVER | Sam | Market | Result | Call | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score (UNT–NAVY) | 33–29 | 34–28 | – | 49–39 | |
| Spread | UNT −3.9 | UNT −5.7 | UNT −3 | UNT by 10 | UNT −3 ✓ |
| Total | 61.4 | 62.0 | 62.5 | 88 | Under 62.5 ✗ |
| NAVY win chance | 41% | – | +124 | Lost |
UNT by 14+
27%
UNT by 1–13
33%
NAVY by 1–13
27%
NAVY by 14+
14%
Spread: 0.9 pts better than Vegas for North Texas (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 1.1 pts below Vegas (52% historically). Opened UNT −1.5.
Tale of the tape
BEAVER Stats, opponent-adjusted, entering the game. Rank among 138 FBS teams.Efficiency
+0.175 #11Offense EPA / play+0.013 #62
+0.078 #89Defense EPA / play allowed+0.086 #92
+4.1% #28Offense success rate+1.6% #55
+5.1% #115Defense success rate allowed−2.0% #40
+0.145 #24Rushing EPA / play+0.128 #30
+0.197 #13Passing EPA / play−0.013 #62
+0.014 #69Rush defense EPA allowed−0.049 #36
+0.271 #132Pass defense EPA allowed+0.294 #133
+8.9 #13Scoring offense (pts vs avg)−5.3 #95
+6.2 #109Scoring defense (pts vs avg)+4.0 #91
Situational
−0.9% #61Passing-down success (3rd & long)−7.3% #115
+1.7% #92Passing-down success allowed−0.2% #64
+0.78 #23Points per drive−0.70 #102
+0.63 #106Points per drive allowed+0.26 #77
Trenches
+0.22 #50Line yards per rush+0.46 #17
−0.04 #60Line yards per rush allowed−0.26 #30
−3.6% #44Runs stuffed at the line−6.1% #14
−1.9% #101Opponent runs stuffed+2.1% #41
−3.9% #23Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU)−1.5% #66
−0.8% #79Havoc created−1.8% #99
Big plays
+0.274 #3Rushing explosiveness+0.093 #34
+0.160 #49Passing explosiveness+0.687 #1
+0.45 #12Open-field yards per rush+0.31 #21
+0.102 #111Pass explosiveness allowed+0.330 #137
Style and schedule
50% #121Run rate80% #3
−8.2 #83Strength of schedule (avg opponent)−12.9 #112
North Texas: last 5 games
| W50-10 | Covered | |
| W45-44 | Missed | |
| W63-14 | Covered | |
| L35-49 | Missed | |
| W44-6 | Covered |
Navy: last 5 games
| L34-38 | Covered | |
| W34-26 | Covered | |
| L9-14 | Missed | |
| L20-24 | Missed | |
| L30-38 | Missed |
Rating trend
BEAVER Stats: net EPA per play against an average team, entering each weekUNTNAVY
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Closing lines
the last line before kickoff| Book | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | UNT −3 | 62.5 | UNT −148 · NAVY +124 |
| BEAVER fair line | UNT −3.9 | 61.4 | UNT −147 · NAVY +147 |
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Tendencies
Season to date. Against the spread and over/under use closing lines.| UNT | NAVY | |
|---|---|---|
| 5-2 | Record | 2-5 |
| 3-0 | Conference | 1-4 |
| 3-0 | Home | 2-1 |
| 2-2 | Away | 0-4 |
| 5-2 | Against the spread | 2-5 |
| 6-1 | Over/under | 5-2 |
| 43.1 / 30.6 | Points for / against | 29.7 / 29.1 |
| +12.6 | Avg margin | +0.6 |
| +8.8 | Avg vs. the spread | -4.4 |
| 60.0 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 63.4 |