College football scores › Week 7 › Akron at Miami (OH)
BEAVER AKR +10, lostBEAVER Over 46.5, wonBEAVER had M-OH 71% to win
BEAVER against the market
Locked at kickoff, graded on the closing line| BEAVER | Sam | Market | Result | Call | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score (AKR–M-OH) | 22–31 | 18–34 | – | 14–34 | |
| Spread | M-OH −8.9 | M-OH −16.3 | M-OH −10 | M-OH by 20 | AKR +10 ✗ |
| Total | 52.8 | 51.9 | 46.5 | 48 | Over 46.5 ✓ |
| M-OH win chance | 71% | – | −355 | Won |
AKR by 14+
8%
AKR by 1–13
21%
M-OH by 1–13
34%
M-OH by 14+
37%
Spread: 1.1 pts better than Vegas for Akron (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 6.3 pts above Vegas (54% historically). Opened M-OH −9.5.
Tale of the tape
BEAVER Stats, opponent-adjusted, entering the game. Rank among 138 FBS teams.Efficiency
−0.115 #110Offense EPA / play−0.011 #69
+0.208 #135Defense EPA / play allowed+0.092 #98
−4.1% #105Offense success rate−4.2% #109
+7.1% #126Defense success rate allowed+3.8% #98
−0.049 #103Rushing EPA / play−0.020 #91
−0.133 #105Passing EPA / play+0.067 #36
+0.095 #104Rush defense EPA allowed+0.034 #74
+0.280 #130Pass defense EPA allowed+0.162 #106
−9.7 #120Scoring offense (pts vs avg)−5.8 #97
+11.4 #131Scoring defense (pts vs avg)+6.0 #109
Situational
−7.8% #117Passing-down success (3rd & long)−2.5% #77
+6.6% #121Passing-down success allowed+3.6% #101
−1.16 #117Points per drive−0.34 #83
+1.20 #125Points per drive allowed+0.66 #105
Trenches
+0.19 #53Line yards per rush−0.04 #91
+0.33 #117Line yards per rush allowed−0.16 #39
−1.9% #72Runs stuffed at the line−3.3% #46
−2.1% #99Opponent runs stuffed+2.0% #41
+2.1% #129Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU)−0.4% #96
−2.9% #118Havoc created−2.4% #106
Big plays
−0.132 #124Rushing explosiveness−0.009 #82
+0.074 #83Passing explosiveness+0.422 #2
−0.43 #108Open-field yards per rush−0.33 #96
+0.243 #135Pass explosiveness allowed−0.007 #60
Style and schedule
52% #106Run rate55% #84
−10.3 #96Strength of schedule (avg opponent)−11.9 #103
Akron: last 5 games
| L23-25 | Covered | |
| L17-41 | Missed | |
| L10-38 | Missed | |
| L7-41 | Missed | |
| W45-10 | Covered |
Miami (OH): last 5 games
| W20-19 | Missed | |
| L20-24 | Missed | |
| W24-21 | Covered | |
| L31-35 | Covered | |
| W45-7 | Covered |
Rating trend
BEAVER Stats: net EPA per play against an average team, entering each weekAKRM-OH
Loading the thread…
No box score for this game yet.
Closing lines
the last line before kickoff| Book | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | M-OH −10 | 46.5 | AKR +280 · M-OH −355 |
| BEAVER fair line | M-OH −8.9 | 52.8 | AKR +245 · M-OH −245 |
Loading…
Tendencies
Season to date. Against the spread and over/under use closing lines.| AKR | M-OH | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-7 | Record | 5-3 |
| 0-4 | Conference | 3-1 |
| 1-2 | Home | 3-1 |
| 0-5 | Away | 2-2 |
| 3-5 | Against the spread | 4-4 |
| 5-3 | Over/under | 6-2 |
| 19.0 / 32.8 | Points for / against | 27.0 / 25.8 |
| -13.8 | Avg margin | +1.2 |
| -6.2 | Avg vs. the spread | -2.7 |
| 57.6 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 53.6 |