College football scores › Week 6 › Eastern Michigan at Akron
BEAVER AKR +5.5, wonBEAVER Over 51.5, lostBEAVER had EMU 58% to win
BEAVER against the market
Locked at kickoff, graded on the closing line| BEAVER | Sam | Market | Result | Call | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score (EMU–AKR) | 28–25 | 29–22 | – | 25–23 | |
| Spread | EMU −3.3 | EMU −7.3 | EMU −5.5 | EMU by 2 | AKR +5.5 ✓ |
| Total | 52.4 | 50.6 | 51.5 | 48 | Over 51.5 ✗ |
| AKR win chance | 42% | – | +180 | Lost |
EMU by 14+
25%
EMU by 1–13
33%
AKR by 1–13
28%
AKR by 14+
14%
Spread: 2.2 pts better than Vegas for Akron (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 0.9 pts above Vegas (52% historically). Opened EMU −7.
Tale of the tape
BEAVER Stats, opponent-adjusted, entering the game. Rank among 138 FBS teams.Efficiency
−0.109 #111Offense EPA / play−0.146 #121
+0.130 #115Defense EPA / play allowed+0.214 #135
−3.9% #105Offense success rate−3.7% #100
+5.2% #118Defense success rate allowed+6.5% #124
−0.019 #92Rushing EPA / play−0.055 #105
−0.142 #103Passing EPA / play−0.194 #115
+0.086 #100Rush defense EPA allowed+0.073 #93
+0.142 #98Pass defense EPA allowed+0.291 #132
−8.6 #116Scoring offense (pts vs avg)−9.5 #123
+7.2 #118Scoring defense (pts vs avg)+11.5 #132
Situational
−3.1% #84Passing-down success (3rd & long)−6.5% #109
+7.2% #128Passing-down success allowed+5.4% #120
−0.92 #105Points per drive−1.11 #116
+1.00 #117Points per drive allowed+1.25 #127
Trenches
−0.20 #116Line yards per rush+0.20 #52
+0.09 #83Line yards per rush allowed+0.23 #109
+1.1% #111Runs stuffed at the line−2.4% #62
−0.6% #80Opponent runs stuffed−1.3% #91
+1.0% #118Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU)+2.0% #128
−1.2% #82Havoc created−2.1% #102
Big plays
+0.085 #37Rushing explosiveness−0.118 #117
−0.065 #125Passing explosiveness+0.010 #108
−0.40 #102Open-field yards per rush−0.41 #105
+0.065 #94Pass explosiveness allowed+0.307 #137
Style and schedule
51% #119Run rate51% #116
−14.1 #115Strength of schedule (avg opponent)−9.5 #86
Eastern Michigan: last 5 games
| W38-14 | Covered | |
| W29-3 | Covered | |
| L10-54 | Missed | |
| L7-35 | Missed | |
| L21-27 | Missed |
Akron: last 5 games
| L17-41 | Missed | |
| L10-38 | Missed | |
| L7-41 | Missed | |
| W45-10 | Covered | |
| L16-38 | Covered |
Rating trend
BEAVER Stats: net EPA per play against an average team, entering each weekEMUAKR
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Closing lines
the last line before kickoff| Book | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | EMU −5.5 | 51.5 | EMU −218 · AKR +180 |
| BEAVER fair line | EMU −3.3 | 52.4 | EMU −138 · AKR +138 |
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Tendencies
Season to date. Against the spread and over/under use closing lines.| EMU | AKR | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-5 | Record | 1-7 |
| 3-2 | Conference | 0-4 |
| 2-2 | Home | 1-2 |
| 2-3 | Away | 0-5 |
| 4-5 | Against the spread | 3-5 |
| 2-7 | Over/under | 5-3 |
| 21.3 / 25.7 | Points for / against | 19.0 / 32.8 |
| -4.3 | Avg margin | -13.8 |
| -1.5 | Avg vs. the spread | -6.2 |
| 64.9 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 57.6 |