College football scores › Week 7 › Massachusetts at Buffalo
BEAVER BUF −7, pushBEAVER Over 42.5, wonBEAVER had BUF 68% to win
BEAVER against the market
Locked at kickoff, graded on the closing line| BEAVER | Sam | Market | Result | Call | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score (MASS–BUF) | 21–28 | 26–21 | – | 18–25 | |
| Spread | BUF −7.2 | MASS −5.3 | BUF −7 | BUF by 7 | BUF −7 push |
| Total | 48.3 | 47.2 | 42.5 | 43 | Over 42.5 ✓ |
| BUF win chance | 68% | – | −250 | Won |
MASS by 14+
9%
MASS by 1–13
23%
BUF by 1–13
34%
BUF by 14+
33%
Spread: 0.2 pts better than Vegas for Buffalo (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 5.8 pts above Vegas (49% historically). Opened BUF −3.5.
Tale of the tape
BEAVER Stats, opponent-adjusted, entering the game. Rank among 138 FBS teams.Efficiency
−0.097 #105Offense EPA / play−0.158 #123
+0.079 #92Defense EPA / play allowed+0.153 #121
−5.3% #117Offense success rate−8.8% #135
+5.2% #116Defense success rate allowed+2.4% #88
−0.087 #116Rushing EPA / play−0.086 #115
−0.055 #79Passing EPA / play−0.241 #123
+0.070 #92Rush defense EPA allowed+0.118 #111
+0.072 #77Pass defense EPA allowed+0.200 #117
−10.0 #124Scoring offense (pts vs avg)−8.5 #111
+7.8 #119Scoring defense (pts vs avg)+8.9 #124
Situational
−3.4% #87Passing-down success (3rd & long)−10.1% #129
+4.6% #111Passing-down success allowed−1.6% #53
−0.97 #106Points per drive−1.33 #129
+1.29 #128Points per drive allowed+0.82 #113
Trenches
−0.16 #111Line yards per rush−0.38 #130
+0.39 #124Line yards per rush allowed+0.54 #137
+1.6% #112Runs stuffed at the line+1.7% #115
−2.9% #111Opponent runs stuffed−5.0% #130
−0.2% #99Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU)+0.9% #120
−2.8% #116Havoc created−1.6% #94
Big plays
−0.013 #85Rushing explosiveness+0.083 #37
+0.157 #51Passing explosiveness+0.008 #107
−0.70 #130Open-field yards per rush−0.32 #94
+0.121 #111Pass explosiveness allowed+0.164 #126
Style and schedule
58% #39Run rate57% #51
−24.6 #138Strength of schedule (avg opponent)−13.9 #116
Massachusetts: last 5 games
| L19-20 | Covered | |
| L14-38 | Missed | |
| W35-6 | Covered | |
| W36-14 | Missed | |
| W37-10 | Covered |
Buffalo: last 5 games
| W23-8 | Covered | |
| L17-20 | Covered | |
| W31-28 | Missed | |
| L13-55 | Missed | |
| L20-33 | Missed |
Rating trend
BEAVER Stats: net EPA per play against an average team, entering each weekMASSBUF
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Closing lines
the last line before kickoff| Book | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | BUF −7 | 42.5 | MASS +205 · BUF −250 |
| BEAVER fair line | BUF −7.2 | 48.3 | MASS +209 · BUF −209 |
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Tendencies
Season to date. Against the spread and over/under use closing lines.| MASS | BUF | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-4 | Record | 5-3 |
| 1-3 | Conference | 3-1 |
| 2-2 | Home | 4-1 |
| 2-2 | Away | 1-2 |
| 4-4 | Against the spread | 4-4 |
| 2-6 | Over/under | 4-4 |
| 26.5 / 21.1 | Points for / against | 22.6 / 25.4 |
| +5.4 | Avg margin | -2.8 |
| +4.0 | Avg vs. the spread | +0.3 |
| 54.8 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 71.9 |