BEAVER
College football scores › Week 6 › Arizona at West Virginia
ArizonaNo. 226-1away
52
FinalMilan Puskar Stadium, 73°, wind 11 mph
West Virginia5-3home
31
BEAVER ARIZ −3.5, wonBEAVER Under 60.5, lostBEAVER had ARIZ 67% to win

BEAVER against the market

Locked at kickoff, graded on the closing line
BEAVERSamMarketResultCall
Score (ARIZ–WVU)33–2631–29–52–31
SpreadARIZ −7.1ARIZ −2.5ARIZ −3.5ARIZ by 21ARIZ −3.5 ✓
Total58.860.160.583Under 60.5 ✗
WVU win chance33%–+145Lost
ARIZ by 14+
34%
ARIZ by 1–13
33%
WVU by 1–13
23%
WVU by 14+
10%

Spread: 3.6 pts better than Vegas for Arizona (sides with a gap this size have won 54% in the backtest). Total: 1.7 pts below Vegas (52% historically). Opened ARIZ −3.

Tale of the tape

BEAVER Stats, opponent-adjusted, entering the game. Rank among 138 FBS teams.
Efficiency
+0.071 #33Offense EPA / play+0.053 #40
−0.036 #43Defense EPA / play allowed+0.139 #119
+4.2% #29Offense success rate+0.7% #61
−3.5% #26Defense success rate allowed+5.1% #117
+0.066 #56Rushing EPA / play+0.119 #31
+0.077 #38Passing EPA / play+0.040 #45
−0.035 #39Rush defense EPA allowed+0.007 #56
−0.010 #47Pass defense EPA allowed+0.234 #127
+2.1 #48Scoring offense (pts vs avg)+4.9 #29
−4.3 #30Scoring defense (pts vs avg)+5.8 #106
Situational
+5.9% #14Passing-down success (3rd & long)+4.1% #27
+3.4% #99Passing-down success allowed+2.8% #92
+0.38 #41Points per drive+0.27 #53
−0.24 #44Points per drive allowed+0.23 #80
Trenches
+0.32 #30Line yards per rush+0.19 #54
−0.25 #27Line yards per rush allowed−0.09 #51
−4.0% #36Runs stuffed at the line−3.4% #51
+3.8% #23Opponent runs stuffed+3.2% #26
−2.9% #36Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU)−2.8% #40
+0.9% #40Havoc created−1.7% #93
Big plays
−0.071 #104Rushing explosiveness+0.117 #29
+0.069 #88Passing explosiveness+0.668 #1
−0.39 #100Open-field yards per rush+0.29 #23
+0.155 #120Pass explosiveness allowed−0.078 #38
Style and schedule
50% #125Run rate73% #5
−7.7 #68Strength of schedule (avg opponent)−7.1 #63

Arizona: last 5 games

W34-7
vsCincinnati
Covered
W34-24
atWashington State
Missed
W42-17
vsNorthern Illinois
Missed
L17-28
atBYU
Missed
W35-7
vsNorthern Arizona
Missed

West Virginia: last 5 games

L42-45
atIowa State
Push
L24-41
vsOklahoma State
Missed
W38-27
vsVirginia
Covered
W52-7
vsUT Martin
Covered
W31-24
vsCoastal Carolina
Missed

Rating trend

BEAVER Stats: net EPA per play against an average team, entering each week
−0.12−0.06+0.00+0.06+0.12Entering week123456Arizona · 1: +0.06Arizona · 2: +0.02Arizona · 3: +0.01Arizona · 4: +0.07Arizona · 5: +0.08Arizona · 6: +0.11West Virginia · 1: −0.02West Virginia · 2: −0.10West Virginia · 3: −0.08West Virginia · 4: +0.04West Virginia · 5: −0.10West Virginia · 6: −0.09
● Arizona● West Virginia