College football scores › Week 7 › Northwestern at Michigan State
BEAVER NU −7, lostBEAVER Over 49.5, lostBEAVER had NU 76% to win
BEAVER against the market
Locked at kickoff, graded on the closing line| BEAVER | Sam | Market | Result | Call | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score (NU–MSU) | 32–21 | 33–16 | – | 24–21 | |
| Spread | NU −11.2 | NU −17.8 | NU −7 | NU by 3 | NU −7 ✗ |
| Total | 52.6 | 49.0 | 49.5 | 45 | Over 49.5 ✗ |
| MSU win chance | 24% | – | +240 | Lost |
NU by 14+
43%
NU by 1–13
33%
MSU by 1–13
18%
MSU by 14+
6%
Spread: 4.2 pts better than Vegas for Northwestern (sides with a gap this size have won 54% in the backtest). Total: 3.1 pts above Vegas (51% historically). Opened NU −8.5.
Tale of the tape
BEAVER Stats, opponent-adjusted, entering the game. Rank among 138 FBS teams.Efficiency
+0.190 #9Offense EPA / play−0.082 #99
+0.008 #60Defense EPA / play allowed+0.030 #73
+8.0% #10Offense success rate+2.6% #43
+3.6% #96Defense success rate allowed−0.4% #57
+0.194 #10Rushing EPA / play−0.033 #96
+0.192 #14Passing EPA / play−0.112 #96
+0.031 #72Rush defense EPA allowed−0.036 #42
−0.057 #37Pass defense EPA allowed+0.082 #82
+5.8 #26Scoring offense (pts vs avg)−3.5 #83
−6.0 #24Scoring defense (pts vs avg)−2.2 #44
Situational
+6.6% #14Passing-down success (3rd & long)+0.4% #46
−1.8% #50Passing-down success allowed−0.4% #65
+0.42 #43Points per drive−0.31 #81
−0.74 #21Points per drive allowed−0.42 #38
Trenches
+0.37 #25Line yards per rush+0.11 #70
+0.27 #110Line yards per rush allowed−0.12 #47
−5.3% #26Runs stuffed at the line−1.9% #71
−0.2% #75Opponent runs stuffed+3.7% #26
−2.1% #54Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU)+0.2% #105
+0.8% #41Havoc created−1.8% #100
Big plays
+0.053 #50Rushing explosiveness−0.140 #126
+0.117 #67Passing explosiveness−0.052 #123
+0.45 #13Open-field yards per rush−0.42 #107
−0.172 #14Pass explosiveness allowed+0.121 #110
Style and schedule
60% #29Run rate57% #53
−0.9 #26Strength of schedule (avg opponent)+5.2 #7
Northwestern: last 5 games
| W45-14 | Missed | |
| W34-13 | Covered | |
| L23-29 | Covered | |
| W41-7 | Covered | |
| W34-18 | Covered |
Michigan State: last 5 games
| L37-38 | Covered | |
| L3-31 | Missed | |
| L13-31 | Missed | |
| L10-27 | Covered | |
| W35-7 | Covered |
Rating trend
BEAVER Stats: net EPA per play against an average team, entering each weekNUMSU
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Closing lines
the last line before kickoff| Book | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | NU −7 | 49.5 | NU −298 · MSU +240 |
| BEAVER fair line | NU −11.2 | 52.6 | NU −316 · MSU +316 |
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Tendencies
Season to date. Against the spread and over/under use closing lines.| NU | MSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 6-1 | Record | 2-6 |
| 3-1 | Conference | 0-5 |
| 5-0 | Home | 2-3 |
| 1-1 | Away | 0-3 |
| 5-2 | Against the spread | 4-3-1 |
| 5-2 | Over/under | 2-6 |
| 34.7 / 16.6 | Points for / against | 19.9 / 25.8 |
| +18.1 | Avg margin | -5.9 |
| +10.8 | Avg vs. the spread | -0.6 |
| 60.1 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 61.2 |