BEAVER
College football scores › Week 6 › Indiana at Nebraska
IndianaNo. 47-1away
20
FinalMemorial Stadium (Lincoln, NE), 82°, wind 19 mph
Nebraska5-2home
17
BEAVER NEB +8.5, wonBEAVER Over 48.5, lostBEAVER had IU 60% to win

BEAVER against the market

Locked at kickoff, graded on the closing line
BEAVERSamMarketResultCall
Score (IU–NEB)28–2433–25–20–17
SpreadIU −3.9IU −7.6IU −8.5IU by 3NEB +8.5 ✓
Total51.258.048.537Over 48.5 ✗
NEB win chance40%–+270Lost
IU by 14+
26%
IU by 1–13
33%
NEB by 1–13
27%
NEB by 14+
13%

Spread: 4.6 pts better than Vegas for Nebraska (sides with a gap this size have won 54% in the backtest). Total: 2.7 pts above Vegas (51% historically). Opened IU −9.5.

Tale of the tape

BEAVER Stats, opponent-adjusted, entering the game. Rank among 138 FBS teams.
Efficiency
+0.212 #6Offense EPA / play+0.148 #17
−0.118 #11Defense EPA / play allowed−0.058 #31
+5.5% #15Offense success rate+4.8% #21
−7.3% #7Defense success rate allowed−3.7% #24
+0.145 #20Rushing EPA / play+0.232 #5
+0.337 #2Passing EPA / play+0.069 #39
−0.153 #13Rush defense EPA allowed+0.030 #69
−0.062 #29Pass defense EPA allowed−0.151 #15
+8.7 #15Scoring offense (pts vs avg)+8.5 #16
−10.8 #5Scoring defense (pts vs avg)−3.9 #36
Situational
+1.7% #43Passing-down success (3rd & long)+6.5% #10
−1.8% #48Passing-down success allowed−7.1% #5
+1.67 #9Points per drive+0.95 #21
−0.80 #14Points per drive allowed−0.33 #41
Trenches
+0.31 #34Line yards per rush+0.47 #17
−0.47 #12Line yards per rush allowed−0.03 #63
−4.5% #31Runs stuffed at the line−4.8% #29
+2.0% #41Opponent runs stuffed−0.6% #79
−4.9% #13Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU)−3.0% #35
+2.6% #20Havoc created+1.7% #28
Big plays
+0.094 #35Rushing explosiveness+0.216 #4
+0.276 #21Passing explosiveness+0.092 #77
+0.81 #5Open-field yards per rush+0.36 #18
+0.067 #95Pass explosiveness allowed+0.031 #80
Style and schedule
62% #18Run rate57% #56
−11.7 #99Strength of schedule (avg opponent)−11.0 #95

Indiana: last 5 games

W47-15
atRutgers
Covered
W29-23
vsNorthwestern
Missed
W38-0
vsWestern Kentucky
Missed
W55-0
vsHoward
Missed
W52-16
vsNorth Texas
Missed

Nebraska: last 5 games

W48-23
vsMaryland
Covered
W31-13
atMichigan State
Covered
W34-7
vsNorth Dakota
Missed
W56-7
vsBowling Green
Covered
W49-21
vsOhio
Covered

Rating trend

BEAVER Stats: net EPA per play against an average team, entering each week
−0.03+0.07+0.17+0.26+0.36Entering week123456Indiana · 1: +0.25Indiana · 2: +0.25Indiana · 3: +0.32Indiana · 4: +0.28Indiana · 5: +0.28Indiana · 6: +0.33Nebraska · 1: +0.03Nebraska · 2: +0.08Nebraska · 3: +0.12Nebraska · 4: +0.14Nebraska · 5: +0.20Nebraska · 6: +0.21
● Indiana● Nebraska