College football scores › Week 8 › New Mexico State at Sam Houston
BEAVER SHSU +2.5, lostBEAVER Over 45.5, wonBEAVER had SHSU 57% to win
BEAVER against the market
Locked at kickoff, graded on the closing line| BEAVER | Sam | Market | Result | Call | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score (NMSU–SHSU) | 22–25 | 24–20 | – | 30–24 | |
| Spread | SHSU −2.9 | NMSU −3.6 | NMSU −2.5 | NMSU by 6 | SHSU +2.5 ✗ |
| Total | 46.1 | 43.6 | 45.5 | 54 | Over 45.5 ✓ |
| SHSU win chance | 57% | – | +136 | Lost |
NMSU by 14+
14%
NMSU by 1–13
29%
SHSU by 1–13
33%
SHSU by 14+
24%
Spread: 5.4 pts better than Vegas for Sam Houston (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 0.6 pts above Vegas (52% historically).
Tale of the tape
BEAVER Stats, opponent-adjusted, entering the game. Rank among 138 FBS teams.Efficiency
−0.199 #131Offense EPA / play−0.169 #128
+0.091 #96Defense EPA / play allowed+0.104 #105
−5.8% #122Offense success rate−4.0% #104
+3.8% #99Defense success rate allowed+2.6% #89
−0.087 #118Rushing EPA / play−0.175 #134
−0.233 #124Passing EPA / play−0.175 #116
+0.076 #93Rush defense EPA allowed+0.204 #136
+0.106 #91Pass defense EPA allowed+0.007 #53
−8.5 #114Scoring offense (pts vs avg)−11.7 #128
+6.5 #112Scoring defense (pts vs avg)+5.3 #103
Situational
−4.2% #94Passing-down success (3rd & long)−6.6% #112
+2.3% #96Passing-down success allowed+0.9% #75
−1.14 #117Points per drive−1.48 #131
+0.78 #112Points per drive allowed+0.61 #104
Trenches
−0.08 #100Line yards per rush−0.51 #135
−0.04 #61Line yards per rush allowed+0.34 #119
−2.6% #61Runs stuffed at the line+5.7% #136
+2.1% #42Opponent runs stuffed−1.0% #83
+1.6% #125Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU)+4.7% #137
−2.7% #114Havoc created+1.1% #36
Big plays
+0.054 #48Rushing explosiveness−0.096 #113
+0.177 #42Passing explosiveness+0.012 #108
−0.18 #78Open-field yards per rush−0.68 #129
−0.087 #28Pass explosiveness allowed−0.045 #42
Style and schedule
50% #122Run rate46% #132
−12.1 #107Strength of schedule (avg opponent)−11.4 #104
New Mexico State: last 5 games
| L3-22 | Missed | |
| W34-13 | Covered | |
| L18-42 | Missed | |
| L19-29 | Missed | |
| W51-14 | Covered |
Sam Houston: last 5 games
| L3-16 | Missed | |
| L3-35 | Missed | |
| L14-49 | Missed | |
| W59-0 | Covered | |
| L17-23 | Covered |
Rating trend
BEAVER Stats: net EPA per play against an average team, entering each weekNMSUSHSU
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Closing lines
the last line before kickoff| Book | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | NMSU −2.5 | 45.5 | NMSU −162 · SHSU +136 |
| BEAVER fair line | SHSU −2.9 | 46.1 | NMSU +135 · SHSU −135 |
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Tendencies
Season to date. Against the spread and over/under use closing lines.| NMSU | SHSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-4 | Record | 1-6 |
| 2-1 | Conference | 0-3 |
| 2-1 | Home | 1-3 |
| 1-3 | Away | 0-3 |
| 4-3 | Against the spread | 3-4 |
| 3-4 | Over/under | 3-4 |
| 24.6 / 25.4 | Points for / against | 20.1 / 25.3 |
| -0.9 | Avg margin | -5.1 |
| +2.4 | Avg vs. the spread | +3.4 |
| 61.6 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 54.9 |