College football scores › Week 8 › Akron at Kent State
BEAVER AKR +3, lostBEAVER Under 47.5, lostBEAVER had AKR 53% to win
BEAVER against the market
Locked at kickoff, graded on the closing line| BEAVER | Sam | Market | Result | Call | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score (AKR–KENT) | 24–23 | 21–25 | – | 20–35 | |
| Spread | AKR −1.0 | KENT −3.8 | KENT −3 | KENT by 15 | AKR +3 ✗ |
| Total | 46.4 | 46.1 | 47.5 | 55 | Under 47.5 ✗ |
| KENT win chance | 47% | – | −148 | Won |
AKR by 14+
20%
AKR by 1–13
32%
KENT by 1–13
31%
KENT by 14+
17%
Spread: 4.0 pts better than Vegas for Akron (sides with a gap this size have won 54% in the backtest). Total: 1.1 pts below Vegas (52% historically). Opened KENT −3.5.
Tale of the tape
BEAVER Stats, opponent-adjusted, entering the game. Rank among 138 FBS teams.Efficiency
−0.138 #118Offense EPA / play−0.202 #132
+0.199 #132Defense EPA / play allowed+0.069 #83
−5.1% #114Offense success rate−9.5% #137
+6.7% #126Defense success rate allowed+5.0% #113
−0.065 #113Rushing EPA / play−0.171 #133
−0.170 #113Passing EPA / play−0.159 #109
+0.154 #121Rush defense EPA allowed+0.054 #84
+0.193 #113Pass defense EPA allowed+0.097 #88
−10.8 #124Scoring offense (pts vs avg)−13.7 #137
+11.6 #131Scoring defense (pts vs avg)+8.2 #121
Situational
−8.0% #119Passing-down success (3rd & long)−10.3% #131
+5.2% #115Passing-down success allowed+1.1% #78
−1.30 #125Points per drive−1.57 #136
+1.13 #122Points per drive allowed+1.93 #136
Trenches
+0.09 #70Line yards per rush−0.44 #133
+0.37 #122Line yards per rush allowed+0.26 #111
−1.5% #74Runs stuffed at the line+1.9% #120
−1.9% #98Opponent runs stuffed−1.7% #95
+3.1% #134Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU)+1.1% #119
−3.0% #119Havoc created−0.5% #65
Big plays
−0.121 #124Rushing explosiveness−0.016 #87
+0.114 #67Passing explosiveness+0.220 #31
−0.55 #123Open-field yards per rush−0.69 #130
+0.085 #104Pass explosiveness allowed−0.054 #40
Style and schedule
52% #107Run rate56% #56
−11.3 #102Strength of schedule (avg opponent)−4.3 #55
Akron: last 5 games
| L14-34 | Missed | |
| L23-25 | Covered | |
| L17-41 | Missed | |
| L10-38 | Missed | |
| L7-41 | Missed |
Kent State: last 5 games
| L2-29 | Missed | |
| L7-38 | Missed | |
| L10-13 | Covered | |
| W26-13 | Covered | |
| L3-59 | Missed |
Rating trend
BEAVER Stats: net EPA per play against an average team, entering each weekAKRKENT
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Closing lines
the last line before kickoff| Book | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | KENT −3 | 47.5 | AKR +124 · KENT −148 |
| BEAVER fair line | AKR −1 | 46.4 | AKR −111 · KENT +111 |
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Tendencies
Season to date. Against the spread and over/under use closing lines.| AKR | KENT | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-7 | Record | 3-5 |
| 0-4 | Conference | 2-2 |
| 1-2 | Home | 3-1 |
| 0-5 | Away | 0-4 |
| 3-5 | Against the spread | 4-4 |
| 5-3 | Over/under | 5-3 |
| 19.0 / 32.8 | Points for / against | 14.9 / 30.5 |
| -13.8 | Avg margin | -15.6 |
| -6.2 | Avg vs. the spread | -1.9 |
| 57.6 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 56.4 |