College football scores › Week 8 › Kansas State at Arizona State
BEAVER KSU −1.5, lostBEAVER Over 52.5, lostBEAVER had KSU 60% to win
BEAVER against the market
Locked at kickoff, graded on the closing line| BEAVER | Sam | Market | Result | Call | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score (KSU–ASU) | 31–27 | 32–25 | – | 17–28 | |
| Spread | KSU −4.2 | KSU −6.9 | KSU −1.5 | ASU by 11 | KSU −1.5 ✗ |
| Total | 57.7 | 56.3 | 52.5 | 45 | Over 52.5 ✗ |
| ASU win chance | 40% | – | −102 | Won |
KSU by 14+
27%
KSU by 1–13
33%
ASU by 1–13
27%
ASU by 14+
13%
Spread: 2.7 pts better than Vegas for Kansas State (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 5.2 pts above Vegas (49% historically). Opened KSU −3.
Tale of the tape
BEAVER Stats, opponent-adjusted, entering the game. Rank among 138 FBS teams.Efficiency
+0.050 #38Offense EPA / play−0.063 #89
+0.043 #78Defense EPA / play allowed+0.043 #77
+3.0% #43Offense success rate+1.5% #58
−2.1% #39Defense success rate allowed+0.8% #74
+0.133 #25Rushing EPA / play−0.018 #92
−0.028 #67Passing EPA / play−0.068 #82
+0.127 #111Rush defense EPA allowed+0.090 #100
+0.055 #74Pass defense EPA allowed+0.035 #67
+2.7 #44Scoring offense (pts vs avg)+2.5 #46
−0.5 #63Scoring defense (pts vs avg)+5.8 #107
Situational
+2.9% #30Passing-down success (3rd & long)+5.1% #24
+1.6% #90Passing-down success allowed−0.7% #57
+0.64 #32Points per drive+0.25 #53
+0.04 #61Points per drive allowed+0.49 #95
Trenches
+0.33 #33Line yards per rush+0.21 #51
+0.13 #89Line yards per rush allowed+0.19 #98
−4.2% #28Runs stuffed at the line−1.6% #72
+0.1% #66Opponent runs stuffed−2.3% #105
−5.3% #10Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU)−0.3% #95
+2.7% #21Havoc created−0.8% #76
Big plays
+0.064 #44Rushing explosiveness−0.156 #128
+0.019 #105Passing explosiveness+0.090 #81
+0.83 #4Open-field yards per rush+0.14 #37
+0.092 #106Pass explosiveness allowed−0.007 #59
Style and schedule
57% #52Run rate54% #84
−8.2 #82Strength of schedule (avg opponent)−4.5 #59
Kansas State: last 5 games
| W35-24 | Covered | |
| L16-35 | Missed | |
| L26-31 | Missed | |
| W31-20 | Missed | |
| W34-7 | Covered |
Arizona State: last 5 games
| L25-53 | Missed | |
| W30-12 | Missed | |
| L19-55 | Missed | |
| W24-17 | Covered | |
| L20-48 | Missed |
Rating trend
BEAVER Stats: net EPA per play against an average team, entering each weekKSUASU
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Closing lines
the last line before kickoff| Book | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | KSU −1.5 | 52.5 | KSU −118 · ASU −102 |
| BEAVER fair line | KSU −4.2 | 57.7 | KSU −152 · ASU +152 |
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Tendencies
Season to date. Against the spread and over/under use closing lines.| KSU | ASU | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-3 | Record | 4-3 |
| 1-3 | Conference | 2-2 |
| 4-1 | Home | 3-1 |
| 0-2 | Away | 0-2 |
| 3-4 | Against the spread | 3-4 |
| 4-3 | Over/under | 4-3 |
| 32.9 / 21.1 | Points for / against | 30.9 / 29.9 |
| +11.7 | Avg margin | +1.0 |
| -1.5 | Avg vs. the spread | -4.6 |
| 63.0 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 56.4 |