College football scores › Week 6 › New Mexico State at FIU
BEAVER NMSU +6.5, lostBEAVER Under 45.5, wonBEAVER had FIU 66% to win
BEAVER against the market
Locked at kickoff, graded on the closing line| BEAVER | Sam | Market | Result | Call | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score (NMSU–FIU) | 18–24 | 18–26 | – | 3–22 | |
| Spread | FIU −6.2 | FIU −8.4 | FIU −6.5 | FIU by 19 | NMSU +6.5 ✗ |
| Total | 41.5 | 44.0 | 45.5 | 25 | Under 45.5 ✓ |
| FIU win chance | 66% | – | −250 | Won |
NMSU by 14+
10%
NMSU by 1–13
25%
FIU by 1–13
35%
FIU by 14+
31%
Spread: 0.3 pts better than Vegas for New Mexico State (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 4.0 pts below Vegas (51% historically). Opened FIU −3.5.
Tale of the tape
BEAVER Stats, opponent-adjusted, entering the game. Rank among 138 FBS teams.Efficiency
−0.176 #125Offense EPA / play−0.200 #132
+0.110 #106Defense EPA / play allowed+0.049 #76
−6.1% #124Offense success rate−6.1% #125
+4.0% #103Defense success rate allowed−0.5% #60
−0.094 #118Rushing EPA / play−0.166 #133
−0.188 #112Passing EPA / play−0.243 #125
+0.078 #96Rush defense EPA allowed−0.008 #50
+0.145 #99Pass defense EPA allowed+0.086 #85
−7.3 #103Scoring offense (pts vs avg)−13.8 #135
+6.7 #114Scoring defense (pts vs avg)+0.1 #65
Situational
−2.5% #73Passing-down success (3rd & long)−3.8% #89
+3.3% #97Passing-down success allowed−2.8% #38
−1.16 #121Points per drive−1.77 #136
+0.72 #108Points per drive allowed−0.05 #59
Trenches
−0.16 #111Line yards per rush−0.32 #127
+0.14 #89Line yards per rush allowed−0.17 #40
−1.1% #83Runs stuffed at the line+0.5% #102
+0.7% #58Opponent runs stuffed−1.0% #87
+1.5% #123Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU)−0.4% #99
−3.7% #128Havoc created−1.0% #75
Big plays
+0.077 #44Rushing explosiveness−0.204 #134
+0.224 #31Passing explosiveness+0.036 #102
−0.12 #68Open-field yards per rush−0.95 #138
−0.002 #66Pass explosiveness allowed−0.002 #65
Style and schedule
51% #118Run rate54% #91
−12.8 #105Strength of schedule (avg opponent)−19.3 #134
New Mexico State: last 5 games
| W34-13 | Covered | |
| L18-42 | Missed | |
| L19-29 | Missed | |
| W51-14 | Covered | |
| L17-34 | Covered |
FIU: last 4 games
| W20-3 | Missed | |
| L10-16 | Missed | |
| W33-20 | Covered | |
| L9-19 | Covered |
Rating trend
BEAVER Stats: net EPA per play against an average team, entering each weekNMSUFIU
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Closing lines
the last line before kickoff| Book | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | FIU −6.5 | 45.5 | NMSU +205 · FIU −250 |
| BEAVER fair line | FIU −6.2 | 41.5 | NMSU +190 · FIU −190 |
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Tendencies
Season to date. Against the spread and over/under use closing lines.| NMSU | FIU | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-4 | Record | 3-4 |
| 2-1 | Conference | 1-2 |
| 2-1 | Home | 3-1 |
| 1-3 | Away | 0-3 |
| 4-3 | Against the spread | 3-3-1 |
| 3-4 | Over/under | 3-4 |
| 24.6 / 25.4 | Points for / against | 20.1 / 16.3 |
| -0.9 | Avg margin | +3.9 |
| +2.4 | Avg vs. the spread | -1.9 |
| 61.6 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 70.9 |