BEAVER
College football scores › Week 7 › Ohio at Sacramento State
Ohio6-2away
48
FinalHornet Stadium, 72°, wind 6 mph
Sacramento State1-7home
7
BEAVER OHIO −15.5, wonBEAVER Over 46.5, wonBEAVER had OHIO 85% to win

BEAVER against the market

Locked at kickoff, graded on the closing line
BEAVERSamMarketResultCall
Score (OHIO–SAC)33–1633–16–48–7
SpreadOHIO −16.5OHIO −16.8OHIO −15.5OHIO by 41OHIO −15.5 ✓
Total49.449.446.555Over 46.5 ✓
SAC win chance15%–+625Lost
OHIO by 14+
56%
OHIO by 1–13
29%
SAC by 1–13
12%
SAC by 14+
3%

Spread: 1.0 pts better than Vegas for Ohio (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 2.9 pts above Vegas (51% historically). Opened OHIO −13.5.

Tale of the tape

BEAVER Stats, opponent-adjusted, entering the game. Rank among 138 FBS teams.
Efficiency
−0.020 #73Offense EPA / play−0.229 #135
+0.110 #107Defense EPA / play allowed+0.182 #131
+0.8% #62Offense success rate−6.3% #126
+3.8% #99Defense success rate allowed+3.8% #100
+0.084 #46Rushing EPA / play−0.177 #135
−0.095 #93Passing EPA / play−0.255 #127
+0.045 #79Rush defense EPA allowed+0.136 #119
+0.251 #127Pass defense EPA allowed+0.239 #123
−5.3 #95Scoring offense (pts vs avg)−15.5 #137
+4.1 #91Scoring defense (pts vs avg)+14.0 #135
Situational
−1.6% #66Passing-down success (3rd & long)−9.2% #126
+9.3% #133Passing-down success allowed−2.5% #41
−0.69 #100Points per drive−1.86 #138
+0.60 #103Points per drive allowed+1.99 #136
Trenches
+0.43 #18Line yards per rush−0.74 #137
−0.05 #56Line yards per rush allowed+0.54 #138
−7.3% #4Runs stuffed at the line+8.5% #138
+0.2% #65Opponent runs stuffed−6.0% #135
−2.1% #55Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU)+2.0% #128
−0.3% #59Havoc created−5.5% #138
Big plays
−0.037 #94Rushing explosiveness−0.069 #106
+0.071 #84Passing explosiveness−0.094 #132
−0.53 #121Open-field yards per rush−0.48 #114
+0.039 #80Pass explosiveness allowed+0.043 #82
Style and schedule
65% #9Run rate47% #131
−13.5 #114Strength of schedule (avg opponent)−19.6 #137

Ohio: last 5 games

W31-14
vsCentral Michigan
Covered
W13-10
atKent State
Missed
W35-7
vsStonehill
Missed
L36-41
atSouth Alabama
Covered
W29-27
vsJacksonville State
Covered

Sacramento State: last 5 games

L10-38
atBowling Green
Missed
L6-35
vsMassachusetts
Missed
L10-31
vsNorth Dakota State
Covered
L3-49
atFresno State
Missed
W52-0
vsMVSU
Covered

Rating trend

BEAVER Stats: net EPA per play against an average team, entering each week
−0.45−0.33−0.21−0.09+0.03Entering week1234567Ohio · 1: −0.11Ohio · 2: −0.15Ohio · 3: −0.21Ohio · 4: −0.18Ohio · 5: −0.17Ohio · 6: −0.17Ohio · 7: −0.13Sacramento State · 1: −0.27Sacramento State · 2: −0.35Sacramento State · 3: −0.38Sacramento State · 4: −0.39Sacramento State · 5: −0.42Sacramento State · 6: −0.40Sacramento State · 7: −0.41
● Ohio● Sacramento State