College football scores › Week 8 › Georgia State at Arkansas State
BEAVER ARST +2.5, wonBEAVER Under 58.5, lostBEAVER had GAST 54% to win
BEAVER against the market
Locked at kickoff, graded on the closing line| BEAVER | Sam | Market | Result | Call | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score (GAST–ARST) | 30–28 | 33–22 | – | 32–38 | |
| Spread | GAST −1.6 | GAST −11.2 | GAST −2.5 | ARST by 6 | ARST +2.5 ✓ |
| Total | 58.2 | 55.5 | 58.5 | 70 | Under 58.5 ✗ |
| ARST win chance | 46% | – | +120 | Won |
GAST by 14+
22%
GAST by 1–13
32%
ARST by 1–13
29%
ARST by 14+
17%
Spread: 0.9 pts better than Vegas for Arkansas State (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 0.3 pts below Vegas (52% historically). Opened GAST −1.5.
Tale of the tape
BEAVER Stats, opponent-adjusted, entering the game. Rank among 138 FBS teams.Efficiency
+0.035 #46Offense EPA / play−0.044 #85
+0.089 #93Defense EPA / play allowed+0.113 #109
+2.0% #48Offense success rate+1.5% #56
+2.4% #87Defense success rate allowed+5.3% #116
+0.054 #57Rushing EPA / play+0.016 #78
+0.214 #10Passing EPA / play−0.072 #84
+0.131 #114Rush defense EPA allowed+0.013 #67
+0.044 #70Pass defense EPA allowed+0.259 #127
+1.4 #57Scoring offense (pts vs avg)−3.6 #87
+6.5 #110Scoring defense (pts vs avg)+4.5 #96
Situational
+5.8% #17Passing-down success (3rd & long)−1.6% #66
+0.2% #69Passing-down success allowed+4.0% #110
+0.06 #64Points per drive−0.16 #75
+0.69 #109Points per drive allowed+0.46 #93
Trenches
+0.33 #30Line yards per rush−0.03 #91
+0.22 #105Line yards per rush allowed+0.40 #124
−1.4% #77Runs stuffed at the line−0.4% #86
+0.7% #56Opponent runs stuffed−5.0% #130
−3.2% #32Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU)−0.6% #90
+0.1% #52Havoc created−3.8% #130
Big plays
+0.060 #46Rushing explosiveness−0.089 #110
+0.326 #9Passing explosiveness−0.011 #111
+0.10 #41Open-field yards per rush−0.75 #132
+0.093 #108Pass explosiveness allowed+0.107 #113
Style and schedule
59% #38Run rate53% #99
−13.7 #115Strength of schedule (avg opponent)−9.5 #92
Georgia State: last 5 games
| L22-49 | Missed | |
| W42-10 | Covered | |
| W35-14 | Covered | |
| L30-44 | Covered | |
| W31-17 | Covered |
Arkansas State: last 5 games
| W23-13 | Covered | |
| L49-56 | Missed | |
| L20-23 | Covered | |
| W17-14 | Missed | |
| L7-31 | Missed |
Rating trend
BEAVER Stats: net EPA per play against an average team, entering each weekGASTARST
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Closing lines
the last line before kickoff| Book | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | GAST −2.5 | 58.5 | GAST −142 · ARST +120 |
| BEAVER fair line | GAST −1.6 | 58.2 | GAST −117 · ARST +117 |
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Tendencies
Season to date. Against the spread and over/under use closing lines.| GAST | ARST | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-3 | Record | 4-4 |
| 1-2 | Conference | 2-2 |
| 3-0 | Home | 3-1 |
| 1-3 | Away | 1-3 |
| 5-2 | Against the spread | 4-4 |
| 5-2 | Over/under | 4-4 |
| 35.9 / 26.0 | Points for / against | 28.8 / 27.2 |
| +9.9 | Avg margin | +1.5 |
| +8.6 | Avg vs. the spread | +0.2 |
| 59.1 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 60.9 |