BEAVER
College football scores › Week 6 › Ole Miss at Vanderbilt
Ole MissNo. 125-2away
52
FinalFirstBank Stadium, 64°, wind 15 mph
Vanderbilt3-5home
17
BEAVER VAN +9.5, lostBEAVER Over 54.5, wonBEAVER had MISS 65% to win

BEAVER against the market

Locked at kickoff, graded on the closing line
BEAVERSamMarketResultCall
Score (MISS–VAN)31–2535–25–52–17
SpreadMISS −6.3MISS −10.0MISS −9.5MISS by 35VAN +9.5 ✗
Total55.560.254.569Over 54.5 ✓
VAN win chance35%–+280Lost
MISS by 14+
32%
MISS by 1–13
34%
VAN by 1–13
24%
VAN by 14+
10%

Spread: 3.2 pts better than Vegas for Vanderbilt (sides with a gap this size have won 54% in the backtest). Total: 1.0 pts above Vegas (52% historically). Opened MISS −10.

Tale of the tape

BEAVER Stats, opponent-adjusted, entering the game. Rank among 138 FBS teams.
Efficiency
+0.179 #9Offense EPA / play+0.006 #63
+0.048 #75Defense EPA / play allowed−0.043 #40
+9.7% #6Offense success rate−0.1% #72
+1.9% #83Defense success rate allowed−2.2% #37
+0.146 #19Rushing EPA / play+0.160 #13
+0.210 #9Passing EPA / play−0.021 #65
+0.089 #102Rush defense EPA allowed−0.039 #36
+0.014 #60Pass defense EPA allowed−0.021 #42
+7.3 #19Scoring offense (pts vs avg)−0.3 #65
−1.3 #50Scoring defense (pts vs avg)−2.6 #43
Situational
+4.1% #28Passing-down success (3rd & long)−2.3% #71
+0.0% #74Passing-down success allowed−3.3% #31
+0.74 #23Points per drive−0.16 #75
−0.49 #33Points per drive allowed−0.53 #30
Trenches
+0.07 #77Line yards per rush+0.38 #24
−0.00 #67Line yards per rush allowed−0.21 #34
−1.2% #81Runs stuffed at the line−5.4% #21
+1.8% #44Opponent runs stuffed−0.5% #77
−4.3% #17Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU)−3.4% #29
−1.7% #95Havoc created−1.3% #85
Big plays
+0.176 #11Rushing explosiveness+0.138 #19
+0.014 #107Passing explosiveness+0.054 #94
−0.20 #78Open-field yards per rush−0.59 #125
−0.062 #42Pass explosiveness allowed+0.131 #113
Style and schedule
51% #120Run rate56% #58
+2.6 #12Strength of schedule (avg opponent)+0.8 #16

Ole Miss: last 4 games

L28-52
atFlorida
Missed
W32-24
vsLSU
Covered
W41-9
vsCharlotte
Missed
W41-38
vsLouisville
Missed

Vanderbilt: last 5 games

L14-38
atGeorgia
Covered
L15-21
atAuburn
Covered
W35-31
vsNC State
Covered
W35-26
vsDelaware
Missed
W28-9
vsAustin Peay
Missed

Rating trend

BEAVER Stats: net EPA per play against an average team, entering each week
−0.02+0.04+0.10+0.15+0.21Entering week123456Ole Miss · 1: +0.19Ole Miss · 2: +0.15Ole Miss · 3: +0.09Ole Miss · 4: +0.17Ole Miss · 5: +0.15Ole Miss · 6: +0.13Vanderbilt · 1: +0.11Vanderbilt · 2: +0.07Vanderbilt · 3: +0.04Vanderbilt · 4: +0.09Vanderbilt · 5: +0.07Vanderbilt · 6: +0.05
● Ole Miss● Vanderbilt