College football scores › Week 8 › BYU at UCF
BEAVER BYU −7.5, lostBEAVER Over 43.5, wonBEAVER had BYU 76% to win
BEAVER against the market
Locked at kickoff, graded on the closing line| BEAVER | Sam | Market | Result | Call | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score (BYU–UCF) | 29–18 | 33–13 | – | 31–39 | |
| Spread | BYU −10.9 | BYU −19.5 | BYU −7.5 | UCF by 8 | BYU −7.5 ✗ |
| Total | 47.8 | 45.9 | 43.5 | 70 | Over 43.5 ✓ |
| UCF win chance | 24% | – | +245 | Won |
BYU by 14+
42%
BYU by 1–13
33%
UCF by 1–13
19%
UCF by 14+
6%
Spread: 3.4 pts better than Vegas for BYU (sides with a gap this size have won 54% in the backtest). Total: 4.3 pts above Vegas (49% historically). Opened BYU −9.5.
Tale of the tape
BEAVER Stats, opponent-adjusted, entering the game. Rank among 138 FBS teams.Efficiency
+0.173 #12Offense EPA / play−0.031 #81
−0.115 #16Defense EPA / play allowed−0.085 #25
+7.5% #14Offense success rate−1.1% #78
−6.1% #13Defense success rate allowed−1.8% #42
+0.228 #2Rushing EPA / play+0.001 #83
+0.126 #27Passing EPA / play−0.033 #70
−0.064 #32Rush defense EPA allowed−0.086 #26
−0.161 #13Pass defense EPA allowed−0.100 #25
+4.5 #33Scoring offense (pts vs avg)+1.7 #54
−8.8 #9Scoring defense (pts vs avg)−2.7 #40
Situational
−0.3% #54Passing-down success (3rd & long)+0.1% #50
−1.6% #48Passing-down success allowed−3.8% #28
+0.48 #39Points per drive+0.31 #49
−0.84 #22Points per drive allowed−0.42 #38
Trenches
+0.44 #21Line yards per rush−0.26 #122
−0.21 #35Line yards per rush allowed−0.37 #21
−3.8% #39Runs stuffed at the line+1.2% #111
+3.7% #26Opponent runs stuffed−0.1% #70
−7.7% #2Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU)−2.2% #47
+2.3% #25Havoc created+0.4% #42
Big plays
+0.104 #28Rushing explosiveness+0.052 #51
−0.063 #127Passing explosiveness+0.098 #73
−0.03 #54Open-field yards per rush+0.20 #29
−0.101 #23Pass explosiveness allowed−0.093 #26
Style and schedule
60% #31Run rate55% #67
−2.3 #40Strength of schedule (avg opponent)−3.6 #51
BYU: last 5 games
| W28-24 | Covered | |
| W24-10 | Covered | |
| W17-10 | Covered | |
| W41-23 | Covered | |
| W28-17 | Covered |
UCF: last 5 games
| L28-42 | Missed | |
| L17-27 | Covered | |
| W21-13 | Covered | |
| W44-30 | Missed | |
| L7-12 | Covered |
Rating trend
BEAVER Stats: net EPA per play against an average team, entering each weekBYUUCF
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Closing lines
the last line before kickoff| Book | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | BYU −7.5 | 43.5 | BYU −305 · UCF +245 |
| BEAVER fair line | BYU −10.9 | 47.8 | BYU −309 · UCF +309 |
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Tendencies
Season to date. Against the spread and over/under use closing lines.| BYU | UCF | |
|---|---|---|
| 6-1 | Record | 4-3 |
| 3-1 | Conference | 2-2 |
| 4-0 | Home | 4-0 |
| 2-1 | Away | 0-3 |
| 6-1 | Against the spread | 5-2 |
| 4-3 | Over/under | 4-3 |
| 33.1 / 18.6 | Points for / against | 32.7 / 23.0 |
| +14.6 | Avg margin | +9.7 |
| +1.9 | Avg vs. the spread | +6.6 |
| 58.1 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 60.9 |