College football scores › Week 7 › Kansas at Kansas State
BEAVER KU +3.5, lostBEAVER Under 55.5, lostBEAVER had KSU 58% to win
BEAVER against the market
Locked at kickoff, graded on the closing line| BEAVER | Sam | Market | Result | Call | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score (KU–KSU) | 25–28 | 25–27 | – | 24–35 | |
| Spread | KSU −3.1 | KSU −2.3 | KSU −3.5 | KSU by 11 | KU +3.5 ✗ |
| Total | 52.9 | 52.5 | 55.5 | 59 | Under 55.5 ✗ |
| KSU win chance | 58% | – | −148 | Won |
KU by 14+
14%
KU by 1–13
28%
KSU by 1–13
33%
KSU by 14+
25%
Spread: 0.4 pts better than Vegas for Kansas (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 2.6 pts below Vegas (51% historically). Opened KSU −7.5.
Tale of the tape
BEAVER Stats, opponent-adjusted, entering the game. Rank among 138 FBS teams.Efficiency
+0.052 #40Offense EPA / play+0.039 #47
−0.051 #35Defense EPA / play allowed+0.074 #90
+2.9% #40Offense success rate+2.2% #48
−4.7% #20Defense success rate allowed−0.5% #55
+0.062 #56Rushing EPA / play+0.120 #32
−0.015 #60Passing EPA / play−0.023 #67
−0.062 #31Rush defense EPA allowed+0.117 #110
+0.056 #72Pass defense EPA allowed+0.106 #87
+3.0 #47Scoring offense (pts vs avg)+2.9 #49
+0.4 #66Scoring defense (pts vs avg)+0.3 #65
Situational
−0.5% #57Passing-down success (3rd & long)+2.3% #35
−5.0% #16Passing-down success allowed+3.4% #99
+0.65 #30Points per drive+0.74 #27
−0.20 #45Points per drive allowed+0.17 #73
Trenches
+0.37 #24Line yards per rush+0.21 #48
−0.55 #7Line yards per rush allowed+0.22 #101
−5.6% #21Runs stuffed at the line−2.7% #56
+8.1% #5Opponent runs stuffed−0.6% #80
−1.3% #68Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU)−4.4% #16
+1.6% #28Havoc created+1.7% #26
Big plays
+0.010 #71Rushing explosiveness+0.055 #48
+0.285 #16Passing explosiveness+0.003 #109
−0.52 #119Open-field yards per rush+0.65 #6
+0.048 #84Pass explosiveness allowed+0.123 #113
Style and schedule
57% #48Run rate54% #88
−6.7 #64Strength of schedule (avg opponent)−10.0 #92
Kansas: last 5 games
| L24-41 | Missed | |
| W55-0 | Covered | |
| L17-24 | Missed | |
| L21-38 | Missed | |
| W51-6 | Covered |
Kansas State: last 5 games
| L16-35 | Missed | |
| L26-31 | Missed | |
| W31-20 | Missed | |
| W34-7 | Covered | |
| W71-3 | Covered |
Rating trend
BEAVER Stats: net EPA per play against an average team, entering each weekKUKSU
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Closing lines
the last line before kickoff| Book | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | KSU −3.5 | 55.5 | KU +124 · KSU −148 |
| BEAVER fair line | KSU −3.1 | 52.9 | KU +136 · KSU −136 |
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Tendencies
Season to date. Against the spread and over/under use closing lines.| KU | KSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-4 | Record | 4-3 |
| 1-3 | Conference | 1-3 |
| 3-1 | Home | 4-1 |
| 0-2 | Away | 0-2 |
| 2-5 | Against the spread | 3-4 |
| 4-3 | Over/under | 4-3 |
| 31.0 / 24.0 | Points for / against | 32.9 / 21.1 |
| +7.0 | Avg margin | +11.7 |
| +1.4 | Avg vs. the spread | -1.5 |
| 64.4 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 63.0 |