College football scores › Week 8 › Army at Tulsa
BEAVER ARMY +1.5, wonBEAVER Under 54.5, lostBEAVER had ARMY 53% to win
BEAVER against the market
Locked at kickoff, graded on the closing line| BEAVER | Sam | Market | Result | Call | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score (ARMY–TLSA) | 27–26 | 26–27 | – | 38–35 | |
| Spread | ARMY −1.0 | TLSA −0.2 | TLSA −1.5 | ARMY by 3 | ARMY +1.5 ✓ |
| Total | 53.9 | 53.0 | 54.5 | 73 | Under 54.5 ✗ |
| TLSA win chance | 47% | – | −102 | Lost |
ARMY by 14+
21%
ARMY by 1–13
32%
TLSA by 1–13
30%
TLSA by 14+
17%
Spread: 2.5 pts better than Vegas for Army (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 0.6 pts below Vegas (52% historically).
Tale of the tape
BEAVER Stats, opponent-adjusted, entering the game. Rank among 138 FBS teams.Efficiency
+0.064 #35Offense EPA / play−0.044 #84
+0.155 #118Defense EPA / play allowed+0.002 #53
+3.8% #33Offense success rate−4.4% #107
+6.2% #122Defense success rate allowed−0.1% #63
+0.221 #5Rushing EPA / play+0.064 #51
−0.236 #125Passing EPA / play−0.135 #101
+0.207 #137Rush defense EPA allowed−0.022 #48
+0.211 #120Pass defense EPA allowed+0.108 #93
−0.5 #67Scoring offense (pts vs avg)−3.3 #85
+1.2 #68Scoring defense (pts vs avg)+2.0 #75
Situational
−3.1% #81Passing-down success (3rd & long)−8.3% #122
+8.3% #132Passing-down success allowed+7.1% #125
+0.53 #37Points per drive−0.65 #99
+0.41 #89Points per drive allowed+0.08 #63
Trenches
+0.51 #9Line yards per rush+0.12 #63
+0.52 #133Line yards per rush allowed+0.00 #65
−7.9% #4Runs stuffed at the line−4.8% #22
−4.9% #127Opponent runs stuffed−0.7% #80
−6.9% #6Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU)−0.6% #89
−4.0% #132Havoc created−3.3% #126
Big plays
+0.067 #42Rushing explosiveness+0.133 #15
+0.123 #62Passing explosiveness−0.054 #123
+0.19 #31Open-field yards per rush−0.11 #69
+0.080 #97Pass explosiveness allowed−0.055 #39
Style and schedule
87% #2Run rate54% #93
−12.2 #108Strength of schedule (avg opponent)−10.7 #97
Army: last 5 games
| W56-24 | Covered | |
| W20-17 | Missed | |
| L29-31 | Missed | |
| W21-17 | Push | |
| L24-28 | Missed |
Tulsa: last 5 games
| W38-17 | Covered | |
| L26-34 | Missed | |
| L44-45 | Covered | |
| L6-34 | Missed | |
| W42-0 | Covered |
Rating trend
BEAVER Stats: net EPA per play against an average team, entering each weekARMYTLSA
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Closing lines
the last line before kickoff| Book | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | TLSA −1.5 | 54.5 | ARMY −118 · TLSA −102 |
| BEAVER fair line | ARMY −1 | 53.9 | ARMY −111 · TLSA +111 |
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Tendencies
Season to date. Against the spread and over/under use closing lines.| ARMY | TLSA | |
|---|---|---|
| 5-2 | Record | 4-4 |
| 4-1 | Conference | 1-3 |
| 3-1 | Home | 2-2 |
| 2-1 | Away | 2-2 |
| 3-3-1 | Against the spread | 4-4 |
| 5-2 | Over/under | 4-4 |
| 35.3 / 22.1 | Points for / against | 29.8 / 24.4 |
| +13.1 | Avg margin | +5.4 |
| +5.6 | Avg vs. the spread | +1.7 |
| 60.9 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 63.9 |