BEAVER
College football scores › Week 8 › Sacramento State at Ball State
Sacramento State1-7away
17
FinalScheumann Stadium, 67°, wind 4 mph
Ball State3-5home
34
BEAVER SAC +14.5, lostBEAVER Over 51.5, lostBEAVER had BALL 81% to win

BEAVER against the market

Locked at kickoff, graded on the closing line
BEAVERSamMarketResultCall
Score (SAC–BALL)20–3421–31–17–34
SpreadBALL −14.2BALL −10.0BALL −14.5BALL by 17SAC +14.5 ✗
Total53.752.051.551Over 51.5 ✗
BALL win chance81%–−600Won
SAC by 14+
4%
SAC by 1–13
15%
BALL by 1–13
31%
BALL by 14+
50%

Spread: 0.3 pts better than Vegas for Sacramento State (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 2.2 pts above Vegas (51% historically). Opened BALL −9.5.

Tale of the tape

BEAVER Stats, opponent-adjusted, entering the game. Rank among 138 FBS teams.
Efficiency
−0.255 #137Offense EPA / play−0.076 #96
+0.218 #136Defense EPA / play allowed+0.209 #134
−7.6% #132Offense success rate−5.6% #120
+4.9% #111Defense success rate allowed+4.4% #109
−0.178 #135Rushing EPA / play−0.063 #111
−0.316 #132Passing EPA / play−0.030 #68
+0.163 #125Rush defense EPA allowed+0.189 #132
+0.309 #134Pass defense EPA allowed+0.236 #125
−17.0 #138Scoring offense (pts vs avg)−8.4 #113
+15.9 #138Scoring defense (pts vs avg)+12.0 #133
Situational
−11.8% #137Passing-down success (3rd & long)−2.4% #73
−0.5% #59Passing-down success allowed+7.8% #129
−1.89 #138Points per drive−1.09 #113
+2.41 #137Points per drive allowed+1.77 #135
Trenches
−0.66 #137Line yards per rush−0.15 #113
+0.53 #135Line yards per rush allowed+0.17 #94
+7.1% #137Runs stuffed at the line+0.4% #99
−5.9% #134Opponent runs stuffed+0.7% #58
+2.6% #133Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU)+0.9% #118
−6.5% #138Havoc created−1.9% #102
Big plays
−0.108 #117Rushing explosiveness+0.099 #31
−0.122 #135Passing explosiveness+0.111 #69
−0.49 #113Open-field yards per rush−0.05 #58
+0.019 #73Pass explosiveness allowed+0.095 #110
Style and schedule
45% #135Run rate54% #88
−18.8 #137Strength of schedule (avg opponent)−6.1 #66

Sacramento State: last 5 games

L7-48
vsOhio
Missed
L10-38
atBowling Green
Missed
L6-35
vsMassachusetts
Missed
L10-31
vsNorth Dakota State
Covered
L3-49
atFresno State
Missed

Ball State: last 5 games

W32-31
atBowling Green
Covered
L14-45
atNorthwestern
Covered
L24-39
vsToledo
Covered
L13-26
atKent State
Missed
L15-51
atLiberty
Missed

Rating trend

BEAVER Stats: net EPA per play against an average team, entering each week
−0.51−0.37−0.24−0.10+0.04Entering week12345678Sacramento State · 1: −0.27Sacramento State · 2: −0.35Sacramento State · 3: −0.38Sacramento State · 4: −0.39Sacramento State · 5: −0.42Sacramento State · 6: −0.40Sacramento State · 7: −0.41Sacramento State · 8: −0.47Ball State · 1: −0.22Ball State · 2: −0.28Ball State · 3: −0.29Ball State · 4: −0.34Ball State · 5: −0.33Ball State · 6: −0.30Ball State · 7: −0.31Ball State · 8: −0.28
● Sacramento State● Ball State