BEAVER
College football scores › Week 8 › LSU at Auburn
LSUNo. 156-2away
38
FinalJordan-Hare Stadium, 69°, wind 11 mph
Auburn4-3home
17
BEAVER LSU −7, wonBEAVER Under 51.5, lostBEAVER had LSU 69% to win

BEAVER against the market

Locked at kickoff, graded on the closing line
BEAVERSamMarketResultCall
Score (LSU–AUB)29–2230–22–38–17
SpreadLSU −7.7LSU −7.5LSU −7LSU by 21LSU −7 ✓
Total50.851.951.555Under 51.5 ✗
AUB win chance31%–+230Lost
LSU by 14+
35%
LSU by 1–13
34%
AUB by 1–13
23%
AUB by 14+
9%

Spread: 0.7 pts better than Vegas for LSU (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 0.7 pts below Vegas (52% historically). Opened LSU −6.5.

Tale of the tape

BEAVER Stats, opponent-adjusted, entering the game. Rank among 138 FBS teams.
Efficiency
+0.125 #20Offense EPA / play+0.038 #44
−0.206 #1Defense EPA / play allowed−0.110 #17
+8.5% #8Offense success rate+1.5% #59
−10.6% #1Defense success rate allowed−3.3% #27
+0.036 #65Rushing EPA / play+0.190 #11
+0.235 #8Passing EPA / play−0.081 #87
−0.141 #16Rush defense EPA allowed−0.100 #25
−0.287 #1Pass defense EPA allowed−0.093 #27
+11.4 #7Scoring offense (pts vs avg)+1.6 #55
−9.9 #8Scoring defense (pts vs avg)−8.0 #15
Situational
+9.0% #6Passing-down success (3rd & long)+2.1% #33
−7.1% #6Passing-down success allowed−3.3% #33
+1.78 #6Points per drive+0.06 #65
−1.08 #8Points per drive allowed−1.22 #6
Trenches
+0.23 #46Line yards per rush+0.49 #11
−0.92 #4Line yards per rush allowed−0.42 #14
−3.0% #55Runs stuffed at the line−4.5% #25
+9.5% #1Opponent runs stuffed+2.5% #39
−1.7% #60Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU)−2.0% #57
+4.6% #4Havoc created+1.7% #29
Big plays
−0.114 #121Rushing explosiveness+0.078 #39
+0.100 #71Passing explosiveness+0.096 #75
−0.10 #68Open-field yards per rush+0.27 #22
+0.028 #77Pass explosiveness allowed−0.063 #37
Style and schedule
55% #80Run rate55% #82
+1.7 #17Strength of schedule (avg opponent)+6.3 #4

LSU: last 5 games

W31-0
vsMississippi State
Covered
L34-35
atKentucky
Missed
W63-14
vsMcNeese
Missed
W35-6
vsTexas A&M
Covered
L24-32
atOle Miss
Missed

Auburn: last 5 games

W27-24
atGeorgia
Covered
L14-24
atTennessee
Missed
W21-15
vsVanderbilt
Missed
L39-44
vsFlorida
Missed
W43-8
vsSouthern Miss
Covered

Rating trend

BEAVER Stats: net EPA per play against an average team, entering each week
−0.03+0.07+0.17+0.26+0.36Entering week12345678LSU · 1: +0.15LSU · 2: +0.30LSU · 3: +0.31LSU · 4: +0.27LSU · 5: +0.32LSU · 6: +0.28LSU · 7: +0.28LSU · 8: +0.33Auburn · 1: +0.10Auburn · 2: +0.07Auburn · 3: +0.14Auburn · 4: +0.08Auburn · 5: +0.12Auburn · 6: +0.12Auburn · 7: +0.08Auburn · 8: +0.15
● LSU● Auburn