College football scores › Week 6 › Wake Forest at NC State
BEAVER NCSU +3.5, lostBEAVER Under 56.5, wonBEAVER had WAKE 55% to win
BEAVER against the market
Locked at kickoff, graded on the closing line| BEAVER | Sam | Market | Result | Call | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score (WAKE–NCSU) | 28–25 | 38–22 | – | 38–14 | |
| Spread | WAKE −2.1 | WAKE −15.7 | WAKE −3.5 | WAKE by 24 | NCSU +3.5 ✗ |
| Total | 53.0 | 60.1 | 56.5 | 52 | Under 56.5 ✓ |
| NCSU win chance | 45% | – | +145 | Lost |
WAKE by 14+
23%
WAKE by 1–13
32%
NCSU by 1–13
29%
NCSU by 14+
16%
Spread: 1.4 pts better than Vegas for NC State (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 3.5 pts below Vegas (51% historically). Opened WAKE −4.
Tale of the tape
BEAVER Stats, opponent-adjusted, entering the game. Rank among 138 FBS teams.Efficiency
+0.115 #22Offense EPA / play+0.081 #31
−0.055 #32Defense EPA / play allowed+0.081 #91
+3.6% #33Offense success rate+2.9% #38
−2.3% #36Defense success rate allowed+1.5% #79
+0.156 #15Rushing EPA / play−0.013 #90
+0.086 #37Passing EPA / play+0.172 #17
−0.061 #32Rush defense EPA allowed−0.023 #45
−0.076 #26Pass defense EPA allowed+0.169 #114
+4.6 #35Scoring offense (pts vs avg)+5.3 #26
−4.0 #35Scoring defense (pts vs avg)+1.6 #78
Situational
+6.2% #13Passing-down success (3rd & long)+8.5% #7
+0.5% #82Passing-down success allowed+0.6% #84
+0.58 #33Points per drive+0.94 #22
−0.67 #25Points per drive allowed+0.13 #70
Trenches
+0.32 #31Line yards per rush+0.01 #88
−0.34 #18Line yards per rush allowed−0.11 #49
−3.4% #50Runs stuffed at the line−1.9% #69
+6.1% #8Opponent runs stuffed+2.8% #30
−3.4% #30Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU)−1.3% #69
−1.0% #74Havoc created+1.1% #35
Big plays
+0.040 #62Rushing explosiveness−0.039 #93
+0.150 #48Passing explosiveness+0.025 #103
+0.01 #50Open-field yards per rush+0.03 #48
−0.254 #3Pass explosiveness allowed+0.091 #102
Style and schedule
55% #76Run rate56% #57
−1.5 #25Strength of schedule (avg opponent)−7.1 #61
Wake Forest: last 5 games
| W57-3 | Covered | |
| W30-27 | Covered | |
| L20-33 | Covered | |
| W38-36 | Missed | |
| W38-16 | Missed |
NC State: last 5 games
| W31-28 | Covered | |
| W41-31 | Missed | |
| L31-35 | Missed | |
| W73-0 | Covered | |
| L8-34 | Missed |
Rating trend
BEAVER Stats: net EPA per play against an average team, entering each weekWAKENCSU
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Closing lines
the last line before kickoff| Book | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | WAKE −3.5 | 56.5 | WAKE −175 · NCSU +145 |
| BEAVER fair line | WAKE −2.1 | 53.0 | WAKE −123 · NCSU +123 |
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Tendencies
Season to date. Against the spread and over/under use closing lines.| WAKE | NCSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 6-1 | Record | 3-4 |
| 4-1 | Conference | 1-3 |
| 2-1 | Home | 3-1 |
| 4-0 | Away | 0-3 |
| 5-2 | Against the spread | 2-5 |
| 3-4 | Over/under | 5-2 |
| 37.4 / 19.4 | Points for / against | 32.3 / 28.1 |
| +18.0 | Avg margin | +4.1 |
| +14.2 | Avg vs. the spread | -1.1 |
| 57.0 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 60.6 |