College football scores › Week 7 › App State at Coastal Carolina
BEAVER APP −1.5, wonBEAVER Over 48.5, wonBEAVER had APP 54% to win
BEAVER against the market
Locked at kickoff, graded on the closing line| BEAVER | Sam | Market | Result | Call | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score (APP–CCU) | 26–24 | 26–22 | – | 35–32 | |
| Spread | APP −1.7 | APP −3.6 | APP −1.5 | APP by 3 | APP −1.5 ✓ |
| Total | 50.3 | 47.8 | 48.5 | 67 | Over 48.5 ✓ |
| CCU win chance | 46% | – | −112 | Lost |
APP by 14+
22%
APP by 1–13
32%
CCU by 1–13
30%
CCU by 14+
16%
Spread: 0.2 pts better than Vegas for App State (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 1.8 pts above Vegas (52% historically).
Tale of the tape
BEAVER Stats, opponent-adjusted, entering the game. Rank among 138 FBS teams.Efficiency
−0.107 #107Offense EPA / play−0.116 #112
+0.073 #86Defense EPA / play allowed+0.090 #94
−4.7% #111Offense success rate−6.8% #129
+4.6% #110Defense success rate allowed+5.3% #117
−0.130 #126Rushing EPA / play−0.024 #93
−0.019 #62Passing EPA / play−0.208 #117
+0.152 #127Rush defense EPA allowed+0.074 #95
−0.013 #49Pass defense EPA allowed+0.241 #125
−6.6 #102Scoring offense (pts vs avg)−8.2 #108
+4.2 #93Scoring defense (pts vs avg)+5.4 #105
Situational
−1.6% #67Passing-down success (3rd & long)−4.2% #95
−2.0% #47Passing-down success allowed+1.3% #83
−0.58 #94Points per drive−1.29 #126
+0.31 #80Points per drive allowed+0.41 #94
Trenches
−0.32 #127Line yards per rush+0.15 #65
+0.26 #107Line yards per rush allowed+0.24 #106
+2.2% #121Runs stuffed at the line−1.3% #77
−2.0% #93Opponent runs stuffed−2.1% #96
−0.0% #102Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU)+2.9% #133
−1.0% #81Havoc created−1.6% #96
Big plays
−0.041 #95Rushing explosiveness−0.008 #80
+0.116 #68Passing explosiveness+0.332 #8
−0.74 #133Open-field yards per rush−0.31 #91
−0.178 #12Pass explosiveness allowed−0.016 #56
Style and schedule
52% #109Run rate55% #66
−18.3 #134Strength of schedule (avg opponent)−14.5 #119
App State: last 5 games
| L3-10 | Missed | |
| L31-41 | Covered | |
| W26-21 | Missed | |
| W27-24 | Covered | |
| W55-3 | Covered |
Coastal Carolina: last 5 games
| W27-21 | Covered | |
| L24-31 | Missed | |
| L17-34 | Missed | |
| L14-22 | Missed | |
| W45-7 | Covered |
Rating trend
BEAVER Stats: net EPA per play against an average team, entering each weekAPPCCU
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Closing lines
the last line before kickoff| Book | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | APP −1.5 | 48.5 | APP −108 · CCU −112 |
| BEAVER fair line | APP −1.7 | 50.3 | APP −119 · CCU +119 |
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Tendencies
Season to date. Against the spread and over/under use closing lines.| APP | CCU | |
|---|---|---|
| 5-2 | Record | 2-5 |
| 2-1 | Conference | 1-2 |
| 3-1 | Home | 1-3 |
| 2-1 | Away | 1-2 |
| 5-2 | Against the spread | 3-4 |
| 4-3 | Over/under | 4-3 |
| 30.1 / 23.1 | Points for / against | 26.1 / 25.9 |
| +7.0 | Avg margin | +0.3 |
| +4.7 | Avg vs. the spread | +0.3 |
| 67.1 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 62.9 |