BEAVER
College football scores › Week 7 › Colorado State at Texas State
Colorado State3-4away
27
FinalBobcat Stadium (TX), 82°, wind 7 mph
Texas State4-3home
66
BEAVER TXST −14, wonBEAVER Under 70.5, lostBEAVER had TXST 82% to win

BEAVER against the market

Locked at kickoff, graded on the closing line
BEAVERSamMarketResultCall
Score (CSU–TXST)27–4330–42–27–66
SpreadTXST −15.4TXST −12.0TXST −14TXST by 39TXST −14 ✓
Total69.871.370.593Under 70.5 ✗
TXST win chance82%–−675Won
CSU by 14+
4%
CSU by 1–13
14%
TXST by 1–13
29%
TXST by 14+
53%

Spread: 1.4 pts better than Vegas for Texas State (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 0.7 pts below Vegas (52% historically). Opened TXST −12.5.

Tale of the tape

BEAVER Stats, opponent-adjusted, entering the game. Rank among 138 FBS teams.
Efficiency
+0.057 #38Offense EPA / play+0.121 #21
+0.171 #127Defense EPA / play allowed+0.066 #82
+0.4% #70Offense success rate+5.1% #18
+9.2% #138Defense success rate allowed+3.7% #97
+0.126 #29Rushing EPA / play+0.128 #26
+0.027 #52Passing EPA / play+0.170 #21
+0.144 #123Rush defense EPA allowed−0.052 #33
+0.352 #136Pass defense EPA allowed+0.175 #110
+3.5 #40Scoring offense (pts vs avg)+3.1 #45
+13.5 #134Scoring defense (pts vs avg)+6.0 #110
Situational
+1.9% #40Passing-down success (3rd & long)+13.3% #1
+10.5% #136Passing-down success allowed+3.5% #100
+0.03 #66Points per drive+0.47 #38
+1.40 #131Points per drive allowed+1.04 #119
Trenches
−0.20 #115Line yards per rush+0.26 #42
+0.50 #134Line yards per rush allowed−0.18 #34
−0.8% #85Runs stuffed at the line−3.5% #42
−4.5% #126Opponent runs stuffed+6.1% #10
−0.1% #101Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU)−2.5% #43
−0.4% #65Havoc created−1.6% #95
Big plays
+0.241 #4Rushing explosiveness+0.088 #36
+0.180 #43Passing explosiveness+0.285 #17
+0.56 #10Open-field yards per rush+1.01 #2
+0.105 #102Pass explosiveness allowed−0.095 #29
Style and schedule
51% #119Run rate62% #14
−5.8 #58Strength of schedule (avg opponent)−3.2 #40

Colorado State: last 5 games

L26-56
vsOregon State
Missed
L45-59
atUTSA
Covered
L23-41
vsBYU
Missed
W58-24
vsSouthern Utah
Covered
W35-13
vsWyoming
Covered

Texas State: last 5 games

L29-31
atSan Diego State
Missed
W63-10
vsIncarnate Word
Covered
W49-35
vsNorth Texas
Covered
L26-31
vsUTSA
Missed
L7-59
atTexas
Missed

Rating trend

BEAVER Stats: net EPA per play against an average team, entering each week
−0.17−0.11−0.04+0.03+0.10Entering week1234567Colorado State · 1: −0.16Colorado State · 2: −0.08Colorado State · 3: −0.04Colorado State · 4: −0.11Colorado State · 5: −0.05Colorado State · 6: −0.12Colorado State · 7: −0.11Texas State · 1: −0.04Texas State · 2: −0.03Texas State · 3: −0.07Texas State · 4: +0.01Texas State · 5: +0.08Texas State · 6: +0.06Texas State · 7: +0.05
● Colorado State● Texas State