BEAVER
College football scores › Week 8 › North Dakota State at New Mexico
North Dakota State6-2away
16
FinalUniversity Stadium (NM), 56°, wind 16 mph
New Mexico6-1home
21
BEAVER UNM −4.5, wonBEAVER Over 40.5, lostBEAVER had UNM 78% to win

BEAVER against the market

Locked at kickoff, graded on the closing line
BEAVERSamMarketResultCall
Score (NDSU–UNM)15–2715–27–16–21
SpreadUNM −11.9UNM −12.3UNM −4.5UNM by 5UNM −4.5 ✓
Total42.142.140.537Over 40.5 ✗
UNM win chance78%–−192Won
NDSU by 14+
5%
NDSU by 1–13
17%
UNM by 1–13
33%
UNM by 14+
45%

Spread: 7.4 pts better than Vegas for New Mexico (sides with a gap this size have won 49% in the backtest). Total: 1.6 pts above Vegas (52% historically). Opened UNM −3.5.

Tale of the tape

BEAVER Stats, opponent-adjusted, entering the game. Rank among 138 FBS teams.
Efficiency
−0.093 #104Offense EPA / play−0.045 #86
−0.073 #28Defense EPA / play allowed−0.059 #32
−4.3% #106Offense success rate−3.3% #98
−0.2% #57Defense success rate allowed−2.6% #33
−0.059 #109Rushing EPA / play+0.053 #58
−0.110 #92Passing EPA / play−0.119 #97
−0.107 #22Rush defense EPA allowed−0.018 #51
+0.044 #71Pass defense EPA allowed−0.040 #40
−5.2 #94Scoring offense (pts vs avg)+3.1 #42
−2.2 #44Scoring defense (pts vs avg)−3.0 #38
Situational
−4.0% #91Passing-down success (3rd & long)−2.6% #78
−4.6% #21Passing-down success allowed−1.3% #49
−0.43 #88Points per drive+0.45 #42
+0.02 #60Points per drive allowed−0.08 #53
Trenches
−0.09 #105Line yards per rush+0.07 #74
+0.05 #72Line yards per rush allowed−0.62 #6
+0.6% #101Runs stuffed at the line−5.2% #19
+0.9% #52Opponent runs stuffed+5.8% #12
−0.5% #91Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU)−2.3% #45
−0.8% #80Havoc created+4.5% #5
Big plays
+0.081 #38Rushing explosiveness+0.174 #9
+0.261 #18Passing explosiveness+0.354 #6
−0.52 #121Open-field yards per rush−0.16 #76
+0.083 #101Pass explosiveness allowed+0.013 #69
Style and schedule
62% #17Run rate62% #16
−18.5 #136Strength of schedule (avg opponent)−17.9 #135

North Dakota State: last 5 games

W31-17
vsNevada
Missed
L7-13
atUNLV
Missed
W28-0
vsWyoming
Covered
W31-10
atSacramento State
Missed
W38-32
atAir Force
Covered

New Mexico: last 5 games

W21-10
atHawai'i
Missed
W61-7
vsUTEP
Covered
W42-18
atNew Mexico State
Covered
L6-14
atOklahoma
Covered
W70-7
vsMercyhurst
Covered

Rating trend

BEAVER Stats: net EPA per play against an average team, entering each week
−0.19−0.12−0.05+0.01+0.08Entering week12345678North Dakota State · 1: −0.16North Dakota State · 2: +0.02North Dakota State · 3: −0.01North Dakota State · 4: +0.02North Dakota State · 5: +0.01North Dakota State · 6: +0.02North Dakota State · 7: +0.01North Dakota State · 8: −0.02New Mexico · 1: −0.17New Mexico · 2: −0.05New Mexico · 3: −0.07New Mexico · 4: −0.01New Mexico · 5: +0.02New Mexico · 6: +0.06New Mexico · 7: +0.06New Mexico · 8: +0.01
● North Dakota State● New Mexico