College football scores › Week 8 › Virginia Tech at Clemson
BEAVER CLEM −2.5, lostBEAVER Over 48.5, lostBEAVER had CLEM 65% to win
BEAVER against the market
Locked at kickoff, graded on the closing line| BEAVER | Sam | Market | Result | Call | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score (VT–CLEM) | 22–28 | 25–26 | – | 20–16 | |
| Spread | CLEM −6.2 | CLEM −1.4 | CLEM −2.5 | VT by 4 | CLEM −2.5 ✗ |
| Total | 49.8 | 50.8 | 48.5 | 36 | Over 48.5 ✗ |
| CLEM win chance | 65% | – | −155 | Lost |
VT by 14+
10%
VT by 1–13
25%
CLEM by 1–13
34%
CLEM by 14+
31%
Spread: 3.7 pts better than Vegas for Clemson (sides with a gap this size have won 54% in the backtest). Total: 1.3 pts above Vegas (52% historically). Opened VT −1.5.
Tale of the tape
BEAVER Stats, opponent-adjusted, entering the game. Rank among 138 FBS teams.Efficiency
+0.068 #33Offense EPA / play−0.079 #98
+0.083 #90Defense EPA / play allowed−0.103 #19
+3.2% #39Offense success rate−2.6% #92
+0.6% #72Defense success rate allowed−3.3% #26
+0.016 #79Rushing EPA / play+0.035 #66
+0.133 #24Passing EPA / play−0.148 #104
+0.000 #63Rush defense EPA allowed+0.060 #87
+0.159 #107Pass defense EPA allowed−0.245 #4
+3.3 #41Scoring offense (pts vs avg)−1.4 #74
+2.4 #78Scoring defense (pts vs avg)−4.7 #32
Situational
+5.1% #23Passing-down success (3rd & long)−1.2% #63
−3.0% #39Passing-down success allowed+2.6% #99
+0.66 #30Points per drive+0.14 #60
+0.19 #73Points per drive allowed−0.44 #37
Trenches
−0.06 #98Line yards per rush−0.09 #107
−0.97 #2Line yards per rush allowed+0.20 #101
+2.4% #125Runs stuffed at the line+2.0% #121
+6.1% #10Opponent runs stuffed−1.3% #90
−2.5% #42Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU)+0.2% #106
+4.0% #7Havoc created+2.0% #27
Big plays
+0.059 #47Rushing explosiveness+0.027 #67
+0.132 #59Passing explosiveness−0.113 #133
+0.08 #43Open-field yards per rush−0.06 #62
−0.113 #21Pass explosiveness allowed+0.019 #74
Style and schedule
52% #108Run rate53% #102
−14.0 #117Strength of schedule (avg opponent)+1.3 #19
Virginia Tech: last 5 games
| W34-24 | Covered | |
| L20-25 | Missed | |
| L33-35 | Missed | |
| W21-14 | Missed | |
| W35-26 | Covered |
Clemson: last 5 games
| W37-0 | Missed | |
| L13-41 | Missed | |
| W24-10 | Covered | |
| W28-20 | Covered | |
| W22-7 | Missed |
Rating trend
BEAVER Stats: net EPA per play against an average team, entering each weekVTCLEM
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Closing lines
the last line before kickoff| Book | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | CLEM −2.5 | 48.5 | VT +130 · CLEM −155 |
| BEAVER fair line | CLEM −6.2 | 49.8 | VT +187 · CLEM −187 |
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Tendencies
Season to date. Against the spread and over/under use closing lines.| VT | CLEM | |
|---|---|---|
| 6-2 | Record | 4-3 |
| 3-2 | Conference | 2-2 |
| 3-1 | Home | 3-2 |
| 3-1 | Away | 1-1 |
| 5-3 | Against the spread | 2-5 |
| 5-3 | Over/under | 3-4 |
| 35.0 / 20.5 | Points for / against | 21.4 / 21.3 |
| +14.5 | Avg margin | +0.1 |
| +1.1 | Avg vs. the spread | -6.6 |
| 66.0 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 60.1 |