BEAVER
College football scores › Week 8 › Ole Miss at Texas
Ole MissNo. 125-2away
27
FinalDKR-Texas Memorial Stadium, 77°, wind 8 mph
TexasNo. 115-2home
34
BEAVER TEX −3, wonBEAVER Under 53.5, lostBEAVER had TEX 68% to win

BEAVER against the market

Locked at kickoff, graded on the closing line
BEAVERSamMarketResultCall
Score (MISS–TEX)22–3024–31–27–34
SpreadTEX −7.6TEX −6.0TEX −3TEX by 7TEX −3 ✓
Total51.655.053.561Under 53.5 ✗
TEX win chance68%–−155Won
MISS by 14+
9%
MISS by 1–13
23%
TEX by 1–13
34%
TEX by 14+
34%

Spread: 4.6 pts better than Vegas for Texas (sides with a gap this size have won 54% in the backtest). Total: 1.9 pts below Vegas (52% historically). Opened TEX −8.5.

Tale of the tape

BEAVER Stats, opponent-adjusted, entering the game. Rank among 138 FBS teams.
Efficiency
+0.237 #3Offense EPA / play+0.035 #47
−0.004 #46Defense EPA / play allowed−0.177 #8
+10.8% #2Offense success rate+4.2% #27
−0.9% #46Defense success rate allowed−10.4% #2
+0.228 #3Rushing EPA / play+0.028 #71
+0.257 #7Passing EPA / play+0.095 #35
+0.003 #64Rush defense EPA allowed−0.171 #10
−0.045 #37Pass defense EPA allowed−0.172 #11
+10.7 #8Scoring offense (pts vs avg)+6.9 #20
−5.5 #28Scoring defense (pts vs avg)−12.8 #2
Situational
+8.2% #7Passing-down success (3rd & long)+3.3% #29
−2.4% #42Passing-down success allowed−10.3% #1
+1.45 #9Points per drive+1.03 #20
−0.65 #26Points per drive allowed−1.70 #1
Trenches
+0.45 #19Line yards per rush+0.08 #73
−0.21 #34Line yards per rush allowed−0.57 #7
−4.1% #32Runs stuffed at the line−1.4% #79
+5.2% #15Opponent runs stuffed+5.7% #13
−5.7% #8Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU)−0.2% #98
−0.3% #60Havoc created+4.7% #3
Big plays
+0.120 #20Rushing explosiveness−0.098 #114
+0.060 #96Passing explosiveness+0.122 #64
−0.04 #57Open-field yards per rush−0.11 #70
−0.015 #53Pass explosiveness allowed−0.178 #8
Style and schedule
51% #114Run rate57% #51
+4.2 #8Strength of schedule (avg opponent)+10.5 #1

Ole Miss: last 5 games

W31-3
vsMissouri
Covered
W52-17
atVanderbilt
Covered
L28-52
atFlorida
Missed
W32-24
vsLSU
Covered
W41-9
vsCharlotte
Missed

Texas: last 5 games

L24-27
vsFlorida
Missed
L24-27
vsOklahoma
Missed
W20-17
atTennessee
Missed
W30-6
vsUTSA
Missed
W24-23
vsOhio State
Missed

Rating trend

BEAVER Stats: net EPA per play against an average team, entering each week
−0.02+0.06+0.14+0.22+0.30Entering week12345678Ole Miss · 1: +0.19Ole Miss · 2: +0.15Ole Miss · 3: +0.09Ole Miss · 4: +0.17Ole Miss · 5: +0.15Ole Miss · 6: +0.13Ole Miss · 7: +0.17Ole Miss · 8: +0.24Texas · 1: +0.25Texas · 2: +0.25Texas · 3: +0.25Texas · 4: +0.24Texas · 5: +0.28Texas · 6: +0.28Texas · 7: +0.25Texas · 8: +0.21
● Ole Miss● Texas