BEAVER
College football scores › Week 7 › Notre Dame at BYU
Notre DameNo. 56-1away
24
FinalLaVell Edwards Stadium, 65°, wind 4 mph
BYUNo. 86-1home
28
BEAVER BYU +10.5, wonBEAVER Over 46.5, wonBEAVER had ND 68% to win

BEAVER against the market

Locked at kickoff, graded on the closing line
BEAVERSamMarketResultCall
Score (ND–BYU)29–2125–22–24–28
SpreadND −7.6ND −2.8ND −10.5BYU by 4BYU +10.5 ✓
Total49.647.446.552Over 46.5 ✓
BYU win chance32%–+320Won
ND by 14+
34%
ND by 1–13
34%
BYU by 1–13
23%
BYU by 14+
9%

Spread: 2.9 pts better than Vegas for BYU (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 3.1 pts above Vegas (51% historically). Opened ND −10.

Tale of the tape

BEAVER Stats, opponent-adjusted, entering the game. Rank among 138 FBS teams.
Efficiency
+0.256 #3Offense EPA / play+0.152 #15
−0.216 #2Defense EPA / play allowed−0.127 #14
+11.1% #4Offense success rate+6.3% #15
−9.6% #5Defense success rate allowed−5.0% #17
+0.202 #9Rushing EPA / play+0.231 #6
+0.316 #4Passing EPA / play+0.063 #37
−0.197 #3Rush defense EPA allowed−0.069 #30
−0.226 #6Pass defense EPA allowed−0.166 #14
+16.0 #2Scoring offense (pts vs avg)+3.3 #42
−12.0 #3Scoring defense (pts vs avg)−8.1 #11
Situational
−0.9% #61Passing-down success (3rd & long)−3.4% #86
−7.9% #7Passing-down success allowed−2.1% #45
+2.90 #1Points per drive+0.42 #42
−1.08 #6Points per drive allowed−0.58 #29
Trenches
+0.34 #29Line yards per rush+0.44 #16
−0.36 #19Line yards per rush allowed−0.18 #35
−4.8% #29Runs stuffed at the line−3.2% #48
+4.5% #16Opponent runs stuffed+4.3% #19
−5.3% #8Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU)−7.0% #2
+5.9% #1Havoc created+2.5% #19
Big plays
−0.001 #76Rushing explosiveness+0.106 #27
+0.059 #94Passing explosiveness−0.080 #129
+0.07 #47Open-field yards per rush−0.02 #54
−0.277 #4Pass explosiveness allowed−0.101 #27
Style and schedule
57% #49Run rate61% #24
−2.1 #35Strength of schedule (avg opponent)−8.0 #79

Notre Dame: last 5 games

W58-7
vsStanford
Covered
W37-26
atNorth Carolina
Missed
W49-10
atPurdue
Covered
W27-10
vsMichigan State
Missed
W52-0
vsRice
Covered

BYU: last 5 games

W24-10
vsIowa State
Covered
W17-10
atTCU
Covered
W41-23
atColorado State
Covered
W28-17
vsArizona
Covered
W63-7
vsUtah Tech
Covered

Rating trend

BEAVER Stats: net EPA per play against an average team, entering each week
−0.04+0.10+0.24+0.37+0.51Entering week1234567Notre Dame · 1: +0.33Notre Dame · 2: +0.37Notre Dame · 3: +0.45Notre Dame · 4: +0.39Notre Dame · 5: +0.44Notre Dame · 6: +0.42Notre Dame · 7: +0.47BYU · 1: +0.12BYU · 2: +0.20BYU · 3: +0.22BYU · 4: +0.28BYU · 5: +0.30BYU · 6: +0.27BYU · 7: +0.28
● Notre Dame● BYU