College football scores › Week 7 › Western Kentucky at Sam Houston
BEAVER SHSU +1.5, lostBEAVER Over 52.5, lostBEAVER had SHSU 53% to win
BEAVER against the market
Locked at kickoff, graded on the closing line| BEAVER | Sam | Market | Result | Call | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score (WKU–SHSU) | 26–27 | 21–31 | – | 16–3 | |
| Spread | SHSU −1.2 | SHSU −9.1 | WKU −1.5 | WKU by 13 | SHSU +1.5 ✗ |
| Total | 52.7 | 51.9 | 52.5 | 19 | Over 52.5 ✗ |
| SHSU win chance | 53% | – | −108 | Lost |
WKU by 14+
17%
WKU by 1–13
30%
SHSU by 1–13
32%
SHSU by 14+
21%
Spread: 2.7 pts better than Vegas for Sam Houston (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 0.2 pts above Vegas (52% historically).
Tale of the tape
BEAVER Stats, opponent-adjusted, entering the game. Rank among 138 FBS teams.Efficiency
−0.131 #115Offense EPA / play−0.116 #111
+0.139 #114Defense EPA / play allowed+0.109 #106
−4.2% #107Offense success rate−1.4% #80
+3.1% #93Defense success rate allowed+4.8% #112
−0.082 #112Rushing EPA / play−0.138 #129
−0.188 #114Passing EPA / play−0.141 #106
+0.193 #134Rush defense EPA allowed+0.224 #138
+0.038 #68Pass defense EPA allowed−0.006 #53
−6.6 #101Scoring offense (pts vs avg)−8.3 #109
+9.4 #127Scoring defense (pts vs avg)+6.1 #113
Situational
−3.3% #84Passing-down success (3rd & long)−4.5% #99
+8.4% #129Passing-down success allowed+2.5% #92
−0.43 #89Points per drive−1.05 #110
+1.44 #132Points per drive allowed+0.80 #112
Trenches
−0.26 #121Line yards per rush−0.46 #134
+0.27 #111Line yards per rush allowed+0.34 #118
+2.8% #126Runs stuffed at the line+5.4% #135
−2.2% #101Opponent runs stuffed+0.2% #64
−0.6% #90Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU)+3.2% #135
−3.3% #126Havoc created+1.4% #29
Big plays
−0.065 #105Rushing explosiveness−0.050 #98
+0.124 #65Passing explosiveness−0.019 #115
−0.60 #126Open-field yards per rush−0.56 #124
+0.140 #117Pass explosiveness allowed−0.134 #21
Style and schedule
50% #124Run rate47% #132
−7.6 #76Strength of schedule (avg opponent)−10.1 #93
Western Kentucky: last 5 games
| W34-13 | Covered | |
| L13-34 | Missed | |
| W52-7 | Covered | |
| L0-38 | Covered | |
| L20-70 | Missed |
Sam Houston: last 5 games
| L3-35 | Missed | |
| L14-49 | Missed | |
| W59-0 | Covered | |
| L17-23 | Covered | |
| L21-24 | Covered |
Rating trend
BEAVER Stats: net EPA per play against an average team, entering each weekWKUSHSU
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Closing lines
the last line before kickoff| Book | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | WKU −1.5 | 52.5 | WKU −112 · SHSU −108 |
| BEAVER fair line | SHSU −1.2 | 52.7 | WKU +113 · SHSU −113 |
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Tendencies
Season to date. Against the spread and over/under use closing lines.| WKU | SHSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-4 | Record | 1-6 |
| 2-1 | Conference | 0-3 |
| 2-0 | Home | 1-3 |
| 1-4 | Away | 0-3 |
| 4-3 | Against the spread | 3-4 |
| 3-4 | Over/under | 3-4 |
| 21.3 / 30.6 | Points for / against | 20.1 / 25.3 |
| -9.3 | Avg margin | -5.1 |
| -2.8 | Avg vs. the spread | +3.4 |
| 59.1 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 54.9 |