College football scores › Week 6 › Texas at Oklahoma
BEAVER TEX −7.5, lostBEAVER Under 39.5, lostBEAVER had TEX 79% to win
BEAVER against the market
Locked at kickoff, graded on the closing line| BEAVER | Sam | Market | Result | Call | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score (TEX–OU) | 24–12 | 26–16 | – | 24–27 | |
| Spread | TEX −12.5 | TEX −9.7 | TEX −7.5 | OU by 3 | TEX −7.5 ✗ |
| Total | 36.1 | 42.0 | 39.5 | 51 | Under 39.5 ✗ |
| OU win chance | 21% | – | +275 | Won |
TEX by 14+
46%
TEX by 1–13
33%
OU by 1–13
17%
OU by 14+
4%
Spread: 5.0 pts better than Vegas for Texas (sides with a gap this size have won 54% in the backtest). Total: 3.4 pts below Vegas (51% historically). Opened TEX −6.
Tale of the tape
BEAVER Stats, opponent-adjusted, entering the game. Rank among 138 FBS teams.Efficiency
+0.068 #34Offense EPA / play−0.062 #91
−0.210 #3Defense EPA / play allowed−0.216 #2
+4.6% #23Offense success rate+0.6% #62
−9.9% #3Defense success rate allowed−10.4% #2
+0.040 #68Rushing EPA / play−0.174 #134
+0.127 #27Passing EPA / play+0.116 #30
−0.201 #3Rush defense EPA allowed−0.157 #12
−0.209 #8Pass defense EPA allowed−0.202 #11
+7.8 #17Scoring offense (pts vs avg)−1.8 #72
−16.1 #1Scoring defense (pts vs avg)−11.9 #2
Situational
+4.1% #26Passing-down success (3rd & long)+3.2% #34
−6.8% #7Passing-down success allowed−6.9% #6
+1.28 #14Points per drive+0.39 #40
−1.88 #1Points per drive allowed−1.47 #2
Trenches
−0.01 #92Line yards per rush+0.07 #78
−0.59 #8Line yards per rush allowed−0.58 #9
−1.1% #82Runs stuffed at the line+1.5% #115
+4.4% #17Opponent runs stuffed+4.2% #20
−0.8% #80Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU)−2.3% #49
+4.5% #6Havoc created+4.7% #5
Big plays
−0.127 #120Rushing explosiveness−0.356 #138
+0.109 #69Passing explosiveness+0.136 #54
−0.21 #80Open-field yards per rush+0.11 #37
−0.138 #17Pass explosiveness allowed−0.148 #14
Style and schedule
57% #48Run rate55% #81
+10.1 #1Strength of schedule (avg opponent)+2.6 #13
Texas: last 4 games
| W20-17 | Missed | |
| W30-6 | Missed | |
| W24-23 | Missed | |
| W59-7 | Covered |
Oklahoma: last 4 games
| L13-41 | Missed | |
| W14-6 | Missed | |
| L10-17 | Missed | |
| W51-0 | Covered |
Rating trend
BEAVER Stats: net EPA per play against an average team, entering each weekTEXOU
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Closing lines
the last line before kickoff| Book | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | TEX −7.5 | 39.5 | TEX −345 · OU +275 |
| BEAVER fair line | TEX −12.5 | 36.1 | TEX −381 · OU +381 |
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Tendencies
Season to date. Against the spread and over/under use closing lines.| TEX | OU | |
|---|---|---|
| 5-2 | Record | 4-3 |
| 2-2 | Conference | 2-2 |
| 4-1 | Home | 2-1 |
| 1-0 | Away | 1-2 |
| 2-5 | Against the spread | 3-4 |
| 3-4 | Over/under | 2-5 |
| 30.7 / 19.1 | Points for / against | 21.6 / 17.7 |
| +11.6 | Avg margin | +3.9 |
| -1.4 | Avg vs. the spread | -4.3 |
| 64.6 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 59.3 |