BEAVER
College football scores › Week 7 › Nebraska at Oregon
Nebraska5-2away
14
FinalAutzen Stadium, 53°, wind 6 mph
Oregon4-3home
17
BEAVER ORE −7, lostBEAVER Under 51.5, wonBEAVER had ORE 78% to win

BEAVER against the market

Locked at kickoff, graded on the closing line
BEAVERSamMarketResultCall
Score (NEB–ORE)20–3227–31–14–17
SpreadORE −12.3ORE −3.7ORE −7ORE by 3ORE −7 ✗
Total51.357.651.531Under 51.5 ✓
ORE win chance78%–−230Won
NEB by 14+
5%
NEB by 1–13
17%
ORE by 1–13
32%
ORE by 14+
46%

Spread: 5.3 pts better than Vegas for Oregon (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 0.2 pts below Vegas (52% historically). Opened ORE −21.5.

Tale of the tape

BEAVER Stats, opponent-adjusted, entering the game. Rank among 138 FBS teams.
Efficiency
+0.149 #16Offense EPA / play+0.051 #41
−0.060 #34Defense EPA / play allowed−0.160 #8
+4.7% #22Offense success rate+2.0% #50
−5.2% #15Defense success rate allowed−6.9% #10
+0.252 #2Rushing EPA / play−0.016 #87
+0.047 #44Passing EPA / play+0.106 #32
−0.011 #49Rush defense EPA allowed−0.098 #25
−0.129 #17Pass defense EPA allowed−0.220 #7
+7.5 #20Scoring offense (pts vs avg)+11.7 #6
−5.5 #26Scoring defense (pts vs avg)−7.1 #17
Situational
+6.7% #11Passing-down success (3rd & long)−0.7% #58
−9.0% #2Passing-down success allowed−4.8% #19
+0.82 #23Points per drive+1.68 #8
−0.62 #27Points per drive allowed−1.08 #5
Trenches
+0.41 #21Line yards per rush+0.10 #71
−0.11 #49Line yards per rush allowed−0.43 #14
−3.5% #41Runs stuffed at the line−2.4% #61
+0.9% #57Opponent runs stuffed+1.3% #52
−2.8% #39Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU)−2.2% #50
+2.2% #23Havoc created+2.7% #17
Big plays
+0.243 #3Rushing explosiveness−0.060 #103
+0.080 #79Passing explosiveness+0.182 #42
+0.44 #14Open-field yards per rush−0.14 #66
+0.103 #101Pass explosiveness allowed−0.056 #41
Style and schedule
55% #68Run rate52% #104
−5.2 #56Strength of schedule (avg opponent)−0.8 #25

Nebraska: last 5 games

L17-20
vsIndiana
Covered
W48-23
vsMaryland
Covered
W31-13
atMichigan State
Covered
W34-7
vsNorth Dakota
Missed
W56-7
vsBowling Green
Covered

Oregon: last 5 games

L15-17
vsUCLA
Missed
W41-27
atUSC
Covered
W84-0
vsPortland State
Covered
L31-39
atOklahoma State
Missed
W34-27
vsBoise State
Missed

Rating trend

BEAVER Stats: net EPA per play against an average team, entering each week
−0.03+0.07+0.16+0.26+0.36Entering week1234567Nebraska · 1: +0.03Nebraska · 2: +0.08Nebraska · 3: +0.12Nebraska · 4: +0.14Nebraska · 5: +0.20Nebraska · 6: +0.21Nebraska · 7: +0.21Oregon · 1: +0.33Oregon · 2: +0.25Oregon · 3: +0.17Oregon · 4: +0.20Oregon · 5: +0.29Oregon · 6: +0.29Oregon · 7: +0.21
● Nebraska● Oregon