College football scores › Week 6 › Sam Houston at Liberty
BEAVER SHSU +13.5, lostBEAVER Under 52.5, wonBEAVER had LIB 79% to win
BEAVER against the market
Locked at kickoff, graded on the closing line| BEAVER | Sam | Market | Result | Call | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score (SHSU–LIB) | 19–32 | 14–35 | – | 3–35 | |
| Spread | LIB −13.0 | LIB −21.1 | LIB −13.5 | LIB by 32 | SHSU +13.5 ✗ |
| Total | 51.8 | 48.8 | 52.5 | 38 | Under 52.5 ✓ |
| LIB win chance | 79% | – | −550 | Won |
SHSU by 14+
4%
SHSU by 1–13
16%
LIB by 1–13
32%
LIB by 14+
48%
Spread: 0.5 pts better than Vegas for Sam Houston (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 0.7 pts below Vegas (52% historically).
Tale of the tape
BEAVER Stats, opponent-adjusted, entering the game. Rank among 138 FBS teams.Efficiency
−0.079 #99Offense EPA / play−0.037 #80
+0.090 #95Defense EPA / play allowed+0.029 #69
+0.2% #68Offense success rate+2.1% #48
+3.7% #98Defense success rate allowed−0.6% #58
−0.108 #122Rushing EPA / play+0.009 #83
−0.066 #82Passing EPA / play−0.026 #66
+0.207 #136Rush defense EPA allowed+0.042 #79
−0.027 #41Pass defense EPA allowed+0.056 #73
−5.7 #95Scoring offense (pts vs avg)−2.7 #79
+6.4 #112Scoring defense (pts vs avg)−0.8 #55
Situational
−2.3% #72Passing-down success (3rd & long)+1.5% #44
+5.4% #117Passing-down success allowed+0.0% #73
−0.84 #104Points per drive−0.47 #91
+0.68 #106Points per drive allowed+0.04 #65
Trenches
−0.45 #132Line yards per rush+0.28 #42
+0.27 #116Line yards per rush allowed+0.18 #99
+5.5% #134Runs stuffed at the line−6.0% #16
−0.5% #76Opponent runs stuffed+0.8% #56
+3.2% #135Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU)−1.0% #72
+2.1% #23Havoc created−0.4% #65
Big plays
−0.071 #105Rushing explosiveness−0.182 #130
+0.075 #85Passing explosiveness+0.312 #15
−0.52 #116Open-field yards per rush−0.08 #63
−0.135 #20Pass explosiveness allowed+0.196 #127
Style and schedule
46% #133Run rate65% #9
−12.4 #102Strength of schedule (avg opponent)−13.2 #108
Sam Houston: last 4 games
| L14-49 | Missed | |
| W59-0 | Covered | |
| L17-23 | Covered | |
| L21-24 | Covered |
Liberty: last 5 games
| W30-14 | Covered | |
| W34-17 | Covered | |
| W51-15 | Covered | |
| W24-23 | Missed | |
| L13-20 | Missed |
Rating trend
BEAVER Stats: net EPA per play against an average team, entering each weekSHSULIB
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Closing lines
the last line before kickoff| Book | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | LIB −13.5 | 52.5 | SHSU +410 · LIB −550 |
| BEAVER fair line | LIB −13 | 51.8 | SHSU +384 · LIB −384 |
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Tendencies
Season to date. Against the spread and over/under use closing lines.| SHSU | LIB | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-6 | Record | 6-1 |
| 0-3 | Conference | 3-0 |
| 1-3 | Home | 3-0 |
| 0-3 | Away | 3-1 |
| 3-4 | Against the spread | 5-2 |
| 3-4 | Over/under | 2-5 |
| 20.1 / 25.3 | Points for / against | 31.6 / 14.0 |
| -5.1 | Avg margin | +17.6 |
| +3.4 | Avg vs. the spread | +7.8 |
| 54.9 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 58.7 |