College football scores › Week 8 › Missouri State at Delaware
BEAVER DEL −3, wonBEAVER Under 52.5, lostBEAVER had DEL 65% to win
BEAVER against the market
Locked at kickoff, graded on the closing line| BEAVER | Sam | Market | Result | Call | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score (MOST–DEL) | 23–29 | 22–29 | – | 38–61 | |
| Spread | DEL −6.1 | DEL −7.3 | DEL −3 | DEL by 23 | DEL −3 ✓ |
| Total | 51.3 | 50.6 | 52.5 | 99 | Under 52.5 ✗ |
| DEL win chance | 65% | – | −166 | Won |
MOST by 14+
10%
MOST by 1–13
25%
DEL by 1–13
34%
DEL by 14+
31%
Spread: 3.1 pts better than Vegas for Delaware (sides with a gap this size have won 54% in the backtest). Total: 1.2 pts below Vegas (52% historically).
Tale of the tape
BEAVER Stats, opponent-adjusted, entering the game. Rank among 138 FBS teams.Efficiency
−0.143 #119Offense EPA / play−0.090 #103
+0.164 #122Defense EPA / play allowed+0.147 #116
−5.0% #113Offense success rate−4.4% #108
+7.3% #131Defense success rate allowed+4.3% #107
−0.087 #117Rushing EPA / play−0.100 #123
−0.130 #99Passing EPA / play−0.086 #88
+0.094 #103Rush defense EPA allowed+0.064 #90
+0.208 #118Pass defense EPA allowed+0.193 #114
−8.6 #115Scoring offense (pts vs avg)−8.0 #111
+9.9 #128Scoring defense (pts vs avg)+8.8 #123
Situational
−7.6% #116Passing-down success (3rd & long)−6.4% #111
+0.5% #73Passing-down success allowed+2.5% #98
−0.80 #105Points per drive−1.07 #111
+1.22 #126Points per drive allowed+1.06 #118
Trenches
−0.15 #110Line yards per rush−0.29 #126
+0.27 #114Line yards per rush allowed−0.13 #48
−0.1% #92Runs stuffed at the line+3.2% #132
−4.3% #123Opponent runs stuffed+0.5% #60
+2.4% #132Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU)+3.9% #135
−3.1% #122Havoc created+0.4% #45
Big plays
−0.134 #125Rushing explosiveness−0.174 #131
+0.211 #35Passing explosiveness+0.226 #27
−0.39 #103Open-field yards per rush−0.81 #136
−0.009 #58Pass explosiveness allowed−0.025 #49
Style and schedule
51% #119Run rate47% #131
−11.5 #105Strength of schedule (avg opponent)−13.4 #113
Missouri State: last 5 games
| W24-21 | Covered | |
| L13-34 | Missed | |
| L24-34 | Covered | |
| L24-30 | Missed | |
| W48-14 | Covered |
Delaware: last 5 games
| L30-33 | Missed | |
| L14-30 | Missed | |
| L3-42 | Missed | |
| W22-14 | Covered | |
| L26-35 | Covered |
Rating trend
BEAVER Stats: net EPA per play against an average team, entering each weekMOSTDEL
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Closing lines
the last line before kickoff| Book | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | DEL −3 | 52.5 | MOST +140 · DEL −166 |
| BEAVER fair line | DEL −6.1 | 51.3 | MOST +185 · DEL −185 |
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Tendencies
Season to date. Against the spread and over/under use closing lines.| MOST | DEL | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-5 | Record | 3-4 |
| 1-2 | Conference | 1-2 |
| 2-1 | Home | 3-1 |
| 0-4 | Away | 0-3 |
| 3-4 | Against the spread | 4-3 |
| 3-4 | Over/under | 3-4 |
| 24.4 / 34.9 | Points for / against | 28.3 / 28.4 |
| -10.4 | Avg margin | -0.1 |
| -1.8 | Avg vs. the spread | +0.8 |
| 55.0 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 55.4 |