College football scores › Week 8 › East Carolina at Memphis
BEAVER MEM −10.5, lostBEAVER Under 54.5, lostBEAVER had MEM 75% to win
BEAVER against the market
Locked at kickoff, graded on the closing line| BEAVER | Sam | Market | Result | Call | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score (ECU–MEM) | 22–32 | 18–34 | – | 34–41 | |
| Spread | MEM −10.7 | MEM −16.1 | MEM −10.5 | MEM by 7 | MEM −10.5 ✗ |
| Total | 54.1 | 51.8 | 54.5 | 75 | Under 54.5 ✗ |
| MEM win chance | 75% | – | −425 | Won |
ECU by 14+
6%
ECU by 1–13
19%
MEM by 1–13
33%
MEM by 14+
42%
Spread: 0.2 pts better than Vegas for Memphis (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 0.4 pts below Vegas (52% historically). Opened MEM −9.5.
Tale of the tape
BEAVER Stats, opponent-adjusted, entering the game. Rank among 138 FBS teams.Efficiency
−0.094 #105Offense EPA / play+0.003 #65
−0.002 #48Defense EPA / play allowed+0.046 #79
−3.9% #101Offense success rate+3.0% #41
−3.1% #29Defense success rate allowed−0.2% #56
−0.036 #100Rushing EPA / play+0.045 #62
−0.133 #100Passing EPA / play+0.115 #28
+0.021 #71Rush defense EPA allowed+0.128 #113
−0.051 #34Pass defense EPA allowed−0.021 #47
−5.9 #99Scoring offense (pts vs avg)+3.3 #40
+2.9 #83Scoring defense (pts vs avg)+1.7 #73
Situational
−8.4% #123Passing-down success (3rd & long)−1.7% #68
+1.3% #83Passing-down success allowed−4.1% #26
−0.63 #96Points per drive+0.13 #62
+0.45 #91Points per drive allowed+0.14 #69
Trenches
−0.10 #108Line yards per rush+0.39 #26
−0.41 #17Line yards per rush allowed+0.19 #99
+0.2% #98Runs stuffed at the line−4.1% #31
+9.0% #3Opponent runs stuffed−2.1% #103
+0.8% #116Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU)−1.1% #73
+1.6% #30Havoc created+0.0% #54
Big plays
+0.094 #33Rushing explosiveness−0.004 #82
+0.167 #48Passing explosiveness+0.236 #25
+0.48 #10Open-field yards per rush+0.31 #19
+0.061 #90Pass explosiveness allowed+0.110 #115
Style and schedule
55% #68Run rate60% #30
−12.2 #109Strength of schedule (avg opponent)−11.2 #101
East Carolina: last 5 games
| L17-30 | Missed | |
| W28-12 | Covered | |
| W42-9 | Missed | |
| W20-17 | Covered | |
| L24-27 | Missed |
Memphis: last 5 games
| L17-31 | Missed | |
| W38-13 | Covered | |
| W59-8 | Covered | |
| W45-21 | Missed | |
| L20-38 | Missed |
Rating trend
BEAVER Stats: net EPA per play against an average team, entering each weekECUMEM
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Closing lines
the last line before kickoff| Book | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | MEM −10.5 | 54.5 | ECU +330 · MEM −425 |
| BEAVER fair line | MEM −10.7 | 54.1 | ECU +297 · MEM −297 |
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Tendencies
Season to date. Against the spread and over/under use closing lines.| ECU | MEM | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-4 | Record | 6-2 |
| 1-2 | Conference | 3-1 |
| 2-1 | Home | 4-0 |
| 1-3 | Away | 2-2 |
| 3-4 | Against the spread | 4-4 |
| 2-5 | Over/under | 5-3 |
| 25.0 / 26.3 | Points for / against | 36.1 / 23.8 |
| -1.3 | Avg margin | +12.4 |
| -3.9 | Avg vs. the spread | +2.2 |
| 61.7 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 66.6 |