College football scores › Week 8 › Miami (OH) at Central Michigan
BEAVER CMU +3.5, wonBEAVER Over 40.5, wonBEAVER had M-OH 54% to win
BEAVER against the market
Locked at kickoff, graded on the closing line| BEAVER | Sam | Market | Result | Call | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score (M-OH–CMU) | 25–23 | 24–24 | – | 28–27 | |
| Spread | M-OH −1.7 | Even | M-OH −3.5 | M-OH by 1 | CMU +3.5 ✓ |
| Total | 47.9 | 48.2 | 40.5 | 55 | Over 40.5 ✓ |
| CMU win chance | 46% | – | +145 | Lost |
M-OH by 14+
22%
M-OH by 1–13
33%
CMU by 1–13
30%
CMU by 14+
16%
Spread: 1.8 pts better than Vegas for Central Michigan (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 7.4 pts above Vegas (54% historically). Opened CMU −1.5.
Tale of the tape
BEAVER Stats, opponent-adjusted, entering the game. Rank among 138 FBS teams.Efficiency
−0.043 #83Offense EPA / play−0.133 #114
+0.076 #87Defense EPA / play allowed+0.168 #123
−5.1% #115Offense success rate−5.8% #121
+2.7% #91Defense success rate allowed+7.2% #130
+0.033 #68Rushing EPA / play+0.041 #63
−0.077 #85Passing EPA / play−0.359 #136
+0.019 #70Rush defense EPA allowed+0.156 #123
+0.145 #103Pass defense EPA allowed+0.114 #95
−6.4 #103Scoring offense (pts vs avg)−11.0 #126
+5.4 #104Scoring defense (pts vs avg)+4.2 #94
Situational
−4.1% #93Passing-down success (3rd & long)−8.6% #124
+3.8% #107Passing-down success allowed+9.9% #135
−0.44 #89Points per drive−1.15 #118
+0.61 #105Points per drive allowed+1.13 #123
Trenches
+0.00 #86Line yards per rush+0.19 #54
−0.27 #29Line yards per rush allowed+0.57 #137
−2.6% #60Runs stuffed at the line−4.0% #35
+2.6% #38Opponent runs stuffed−4.0% #120
+0.3% #109Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU)−2.1% #51
−1.7% #97Havoc created−1.6% #94
Big plays
+0.096 #32Rushing explosiveness+0.172 #10
+0.271 #14Passing explosiveness−0.117 #134
+0.11 #39Open-field yards per rush−0.30 #96
+0.016 #70Pass explosiveness allowed−0.096 #25
Style and schedule
56% #57Run rate70% #6
−14.2 #118Strength of schedule (avg opponent)−7.2 #76
Miami (OH): last 5 games
| W34-14 | Covered | |
| W20-19 | Missed | |
| L20-24 | Missed | |
| W24-21 | Covered | |
| L31-35 | Covered |
Central Michigan: last 5 games
| L14-21 | Covered | |
| L14-31 | Missed | |
| W41-17 | Covered | |
| L3-52 | Missed | |
| W24-10 | Covered |
Rating trend
BEAVER Stats: net EPA per play against an average team, entering each weekM-OHCMU
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Closing lines
the last line before kickoff| Book | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | M-OH −3.5 | 40.5 | M-OH −175 · CMU +145 |
| BEAVER fair line | M-OH −1.7 | 47.9 | M-OH −118 · CMU +118 |
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Tendencies
Season to date. Against the spread and over/under use closing lines.| M-OH | CMU | |
|---|---|---|
| 5-3 | Record | 3-5 |
| 3-1 | Conference | 1-3 |
| 3-1 | Home | 3-2 |
| 2-2 | Away | 0-3 |
| 4-4 | Against the spread | 4-4 |
| 6-2 | Over/under | 3-5 |
| 27.0 / 25.8 | Points for / against | 17.9 / 25.9 |
| +1.2 | Avg margin | -8.0 |
| -2.7 | Avg vs. the spread | -2.6 |
| 53.6 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 49.5 |