College football scores › Week 7 › Western Michigan at Central Michigan
BEAVER WMU −7, pushBEAVER Under 42.5, wonBEAVER had WMU 79% to win
BEAVER against the market
Locked at kickoff, graded on the closing line| BEAVER | Sam | Market | Result | Call | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score (WMU–CMU) | 27–14 | 23–19 | – | 21–14 | |
| Spread | WMU −12.5 | WMU −3.4 | WMU −7 | WMU by 7 | WMU −7 push |
| Total | 41.4 | 42.3 | 42.5 | 35 | Under 42.5 ✓ |
| CMU win chance | 21% | – | +235 | Lost |
WMU by 14+
46%
WMU by 1–13
33%
CMU by 1–13
17%
CMU by 14+
4%
Spread: 5.5 pts better than Vegas for Western Michigan (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 1.1 pts below Vegas (52% historically).
Tale of the tape
BEAVER Stats, opponent-adjusted, entering the game. Rank among 138 FBS teams.Efficiency
−0.024 #78Offense EPA / play−0.123 #114
+0.054 #76Defense EPA / play allowed+0.151 #119
+0.1% #72Offense success rate−5.9% #122
+3.9% #102Defense success rate allowed+6.9% #125
+0.029 #73Rushing EPA / play+0.048 #62
−0.071 #87Passing EPA / play−0.333 #134
+0.016 #66Rush defense EPA allowed+0.131 #115
+0.091 #83Pass defense EPA allowed+0.124 #94
−6.3 #100Scoring offense (pts vs avg)−10.3 #125
−2.6 #40Scoring defense (pts vs avg)+4.4 #94
Situational
−4.7% #100Passing-down success (3rd & long)−7.3% #114
+5.8% #119Passing-down success allowed+9.6% #134
−0.64 #97Points per drive−1.07 #111
+0.19 #74Points per drive allowed+1.10 #122
Trenches
−0.08 #99Line yards per rush+0.18 #59
+0.16 #96Line yards per rush allowed+0.50 #135
−2.3% #62Runs stuffed at the line−3.5% #43
−2.6% #107Opponent runs stuffed−3.0% #112
−2.8% #37Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU)−3.1% #34
−2.7% #114Havoc created−1.2% #86
Big plays
+0.008 #72Rushing explosiveness+0.197 #7
−0.153 #136Passing explosiveness−0.185 #137
−0.46 #110Open-field yards per rush−0.13 #65
−0.076 #33Pass explosiveness allowed−0.121 #23
Style and schedule
64% #11Run rate71% #6
−11.8 #102Strength of schedule (avg opponent)−6.9 #67
Western Michigan: last 5 games
| W38-7 | Covered | |
| W20-17 | Missed | |
| L7-32 | Missed | |
| W28-21 | Missed | |
| W49-14 | Covered |
Central Michigan: last 5 games
Rating trend
BEAVER Stats: net EPA per play against an average team, entering each weekWMUCMU
Loading the thread…
No box score for this game yet.
Closing lines
the last line before kickoff| Book | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | WMU −7 | 42.5 | WMU −290 · CMU +235 |
| BEAVER fair line | WMU −12.5 | 41.4 | WMU −379 · CMU +379 |
Loading…
Tendencies
Season to date. Against the spread and over/under use closing lines.| WMU | CMU | |
|---|---|---|
| 5-3 | Record | 3-5 |
| 3-1 | Conference | 1-3 |
| 2-1 | Home | 3-2 |
| 3-2 | Away | 0-3 |
| 3-5 | Against the spread | 4-4 |
| 4-4 | Over/under | 3-5 |
| 26.6 / 20.4 | Points for / against | 17.9 / 25.9 |
| +6.2 | Avg margin | -8.0 |
| +2.0 | Avg vs. the spread | -2.6 |
| 55.2 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 49.5 |