College football scores › Week 8 › Louisiana at Southern Miss
BEAVER Under 52.5, lostBEAVER had UL 74% to win
BEAVER against the market
Locked at kickoff, graded on the closing line| BEAVER | Sam | Market | Result | Call | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score (UL–USM) | 30–20 | 36–18 | – | 31–35 | |
| Spread | UL −10.0 | UL −18.4 | UL −10 | USM by 4 | |
| Total | 50.8 | 54.1 | 52.5 | 66 | Under 52.5 ✗ |
| USM win chance | 26% | – | +360 | Won |
UL by 14+
40%
UL by 1–13
34%
USM by 1–13
20%
USM by 14+
7%
Total: 1.7 pts below Vegas (52% historically). Opened UL −10.5.
Tale of the tape
BEAVER Stats, opponent-adjusted, entering the game. Rank among 138 FBS teams.Efficiency
−0.065 #91Offense EPA / play−0.135 #115
−0.043 #39Defense EPA / play allowed+0.139 #114
−2.7% #94Offense success rate−4.2% #105
+2.0% #84Defense success rate allowed+4.0% #103
+0.078 #43Rushing EPA / play−0.004 #87
−0.139 #102Passing EPA / play−0.165 #110
−0.125 #18Rush defense EPA allowed+0.152 #120
+0.055 #75Pass defense EPA allowed+0.172 #108
−3.2 #84Scoring offense (pts vs avg)−6.9 #105
−0.5 #62Scoring defense (pts vs avg)+9.4 #127
Situational
−2.4% #74Passing-down success (3rd & long)−7.8% #117
+3.4% #101Passing-down success allowed+1.2% #82
−0.54 #91Points per drive−0.58 #94
−0.03 #57Points per drive allowed+1.08 #120
Trenches
+0.19 #55Line yards per rush+0.12 #64
−0.03 #63Line yards per rush allowed+0.27 #115
−3.2% #51Runs stuffed at the line−4.4% #26
+1.6% #47Opponent runs stuffed−3.1% #111
−1.7% #61Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU)−0.3% #96
+0.4% #43Havoc created−4.0% #131
Big plays
+0.109 #26Rushing explosiveness−0.120 #123
−0.011 #110Passing explosiveness+0.120 #65
−0.29 #92Open-field yards per rush−0.76 #133
−0.252 #4Pass explosiveness allowed+0.005 #65
Style and schedule
64% #12Run rate49% #124
−11.0 #100Strength of schedule (avg opponent)−11.0 #99
Louisiana: last 5 games
| W33-6 | Covered | |
| L31-32 | Covered | |
| W23-20 | Missed | |
| W34-7 | Covered | |
| W21-14 | Push |
Southern Miss: last 5 games
| L13-23 | Missed | |
| L34-55 | Missed | |
| L21-24 | Covered | |
| L20-48 | Missed | |
| L8-43 | Missed |
Rating trend
BEAVER Stats: net EPA per play against an average team, entering each weekULUSM
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Closing lines
the last line before kickoff| Book | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | UL −10 | 52.5 | UL −470 · USM +360 |
| BEAVER fair line | UL −10 | 50.8 | UL −279 · USM +279 |
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Tendencies
Season to date. Against the spread and over/under use closing lines.| UL | USM | |
|---|---|---|
| 5-3 | Record | 2-5 |
| 2-2 | Conference | 1-2 |
| 4-0 | Home | 2-2 |
| 1-3 | Away | 0-3 |
| 5-2-1 | Against the spread | 3-4 |
| 3-5 | Over/under | 4-3 |
| 30.1 / 21.2 | Points for / against | 25.7 / 32.4 |
| +8.9 | Avg margin | -6.7 |
| +6.1 | Avg vs. the spread | +1.8 |
| 64.0 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 61.4 |