BEAVER
College football scores › Week 8 › Oregon at Illinois
Oregon4-3away
10
FinalMemorial Stadium (Champaign, IL), 71°, wind 7 mph
Illinois4-3home
21
BEAVER ILL +10, wonBEAVER Over 49.5, lostBEAVER had ORE 72% to win

BEAVER against the market

Locked at kickoff, graded on the closing line
BEAVERSamMarketResultCall
Score (ORE–ILL)33–2434–22–10–21
SpreadORE −9.4ORE −11.7ORE −10ILL by 11ILL +10 ✓
Total57.156.149.531Over 49.5 ✗
ILL win chance28%–+320Won
ORE by 14+
39%
ORE by 1–13
33%
ILL by 1–13
21%
ILL by 14+
7%

Spread: 0.6 pts better than Vegas for Illinois (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 7.6 pts above Vegas (54% historically). Opened ORE −12.5.

Tale of the tape

BEAVER Stats, opponent-adjusted, entering the game. Rank among 138 FBS teams.
Efficiency
+0.022 #55Offense EPA / play+0.094 #27
−0.191 #6Defense EPA / play allowed+0.177 #128
+1.5% #60Offense success rate+6.2% #16
−8.7% #4Defense success rate allowed+3.3% #97
−0.011 #90Rushing EPA / play+0.133 #26
+0.056 #48Passing EPA / play+0.108 #30
−0.147 #15Rush defense EPA allowed+0.091 #101
−0.214 #7Pass defense EPA allowed+0.249 #126
+9.9 #10Scoring offense (pts vs avg)+4.0 #36
−8.5 #11Scoring defense (pts vs avg)+1.6 #70
Situational
+0.0% #52Passing-down success (3rd & long)+6.3% #13
−6.0% #13Passing-down success allowed+8.1% #131
+1.40 #10Points per drive+0.65 #31
−1.25 #5Points per drive allowed+0.46 #92
Trenches
+0.06 #77Line yards per rush+0.39 #25
−0.56 #8Line yards per rush allowed−0.07 #57
−1.4% #78Runs stuffed at the line−7.5% #6
+3.0% #34Opponent runs stuffed−0.7% #81
−0.9% #79Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU)−4.9% #13
+3.0% #15Havoc created−3.0% #121
Big plays
−0.093 #111Rushing explosiveness+0.025 #68
+0.069 #92Passing explosiveness+0.061 #95
−0.26 #88Open-field yards per rush+0.09 #42
−0.032 #46Pass explosiveness allowed−0.087 #27
Style and schedule
53% #101Run rate51% #115
+2.1 #15Strength of schedule (avg opponent)−1.5 #33

Oregon: last 5 games

W17-14
vsNebraska
Missed
L15-17
vsUCLA
Missed
W41-27
atUSC
Covered
W84-0
vsPortland State
Covered
L31-39
atOklahoma State
Missed

Illinois: last 5 games

W38-37
atMichigan State
Missed
L17-24
vsPurdue
Missed
L19-42
atOhio State
Covered
W48-10
vsSouthern Illinois
Covered
L27-31
vsDuke
Missed

Rating trend

BEAVER Stats: net EPA per play against an average team, entering each week
−0.12+0.00+0.12+0.24+0.36Entering week12345678Oregon · 1: +0.33Oregon · 2: +0.25Oregon · 3: +0.17Oregon · 4: +0.20Oregon · 5: +0.29Oregon · 6: +0.29Oregon · 7: +0.21Oregon · 8: +0.21Illinois · 1: +0.05Illinois · 2: +0.04Illinois · 3: −0.08Illinois · 4: −0.06Illinois · 5: +0.00Illinois · 6: −0.05Illinois · 7: −0.08Illinois · 8: −0.08
● Oregon● Illinois