College football scores › Week 7 › Auburn at Georgia
BEAVER UGA −19.5, lostBEAVER Under 49.5, lostBEAVER had UGA 94% to win
BEAVER against the market
Locked at kickoff, graded on the closing line| BEAVER | Sam | Market | Result | Call | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score (AUB–UGA) | 12–36 | 14–40 | – | 27–24 | |
| Spread | UGA −24.4 | UGA −25.8 | UGA −19.5 | AUB by 3 | UGA −19.5 ✗ |
| Total | 47.9 | 54.0 | 49.5 | 51 | Under 49.5 ✗ |
| UGA win chance | 94% | – | −1450 | Lost |
AUB by 14+
1%
AUB by 1–13
5%
UGA by 1–13
19%
UGA by 14+
75%
Spread: 4.9 pts better than Vegas for Georgia (sides with a gap this size have won 54% in the backtest). Total: 1.6 pts below Vegas (52% historically). Opened UGA −16.5.
Tale of the tape
BEAVER Stats, opponent-adjusted, entering the game. Rank among 138 FBS teams.Efficiency
−0.010 #68Offense EPA / play+0.265 #2
−0.093 #20Defense EPA / play allowed−0.128 #13
+0.7% #64Offense success rate+12.2% #1
−3.8% #26Defense success rate allowed−7.0% #9
+0.125 #30Rushing EPA / play+0.221 #7
−0.128 #101Passing EPA / play+0.314 #5
−0.118 #18Rush defense EPA allowed−0.234 #2
−0.063 #34Pass defense EPA allowed−0.116 #24
−0.5 #66Scoring offense (pts vs avg)+15.7 #3
−6.9 #20Scoring defense (pts vs avg)−9.4 #8
Situational
+2.0% #39Passing-down success (3rd & long)+9.8% #4
−4.9% #17Passing-down success allowed−7.3% #9
−0.12 #73Points per drive+2.66 #3
−1.00 #8Points per drive allowed−0.74 #22
Trenches
+0.34 #30Line yards per rush+0.80 #1
−0.41 #18Line yards per rush allowed−0.55 #9
−3.3% #47Runs stuffed at the line−8.0% #2
+2.1% #39Opponent runs stuffed−0.3% #76
−0.7% #87Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU)−4.9% #10
+1.2% #35Havoc created+2.2% #22
Big plays
+0.042 #57Rushing explosiveness−0.109 #119
+0.062 #92Passing explosiveness−0.013 #112
+0.36 #17Open-field yards per rush+0.57 #9
−0.052 #43Pass explosiveness allowed+0.137 #116
Style and schedule
54% #95Run rate55% #80
+2.7 #13Strength of schedule (avg opponent)−4.2 #47
Auburn: last 5 games
| L14-24 | Missed | |
| W21-15 | Missed | |
| L39-44 | Missed | |
| W43-8 | Covered | |
| W17-16 | Missed |
Georgia: last 5 games
| W20-17 | Covered | |
| W38-14 | Missed | |
| W41-13 | Covered | |
| W45-17 | Covered | |
| W70-20 | Covered |
Rating trend
BEAVER Stats: net EPA per play against an average team, entering each weekAUBUGA
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Closing lines
the last line before kickoff| Book | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | UGA −19.5 | 49.5 | AUB +850 · UGA −1450 |
| BEAVER fair line | UGA −24.4 | 47.9 | AUB +1556 · UGA −1556 |
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Tendencies
Season to date. Against the spread and over/under use closing lines.| AUB | UGA | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-3 | Record | 6-1 |
| 2-3 | Conference | 4-1 |
| 2-2 | Home | 4-1 |
| 1-1 | Away | 2-0 |
| 2-5 | Against the spread | 5-2 |
| 3-4 | Over/under | 6-1 |
| 25.4 / 24.1 | Points for / against | 43.0 / 15.9 |
| +1.3 | Avg margin | +27.1 |
| -0.7 | Avg vs. the spread | +3.1 |
| 65.4 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 48.7 |