College football scores › Week 8 › Boston College at Georgia Tech
BEAVER GT −6, lostBEAVER Over 50.5, wonBEAVER had GT 75% to win
BEAVER against the market
Locked at kickoff, graded on the closing line| BEAVER | Sam | Market | Result | Call | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score (BC–GT) | 21–32 | 26–23 | – | 49–27 | |
| Spread | GT −10.7 | BC −2.4 | GT −6 | BC by 22 | GT −6 ✗ |
| Total | 52.4 | 49.1 | 50.5 | 76 | Over 50.5 ✓ |
| GT win chance | 75% | – | −245 | Lost |
BC by 14+
6%
BC by 1–13
19%
GT by 1–13
33%
GT by 14+
42%
Spread: 4.7 pts better than Vegas for Georgia Tech (sides with a gap this size have won 54% in the backtest). Total: 1.9 pts above Vegas (52% historically). Opened GT −4.5.
Tale of the tape
BEAVER Stats, opponent-adjusted, entering the game. Rank among 138 FBS teams.Efficiency
−0.145 #120Offense EPA / play+0.082 #29
−0.012 #43Defense EPA / play allowed+0.107 #107
−3.9% #102Offense success rate+4.0% #30
+0.1% #65Defense success rate allowed+1.9% #82
−0.058 #108Rushing EPA / play+0.100 #38
−0.154 #107Passing EPA / play+0.077 #39
+0.032 #74Rush defense EPA allowed+0.052 #83
+0.024 #60Pass defense EPA allowed+0.191 #112
−8.8 #116Scoring offense (pts vs avg)−0.4 #65
+0.2 #66Scoring defense (pts vs avg)+1.8 #74
Situational
−4.0% #89Passing-down success (3rd & long)+0.6% #44
+1.5% #88Passing-down success allowed+9.2% #134
−1.14 #116Points per drive−0.07 #72
−0.15 #50Points per drive allowed+0.06 #62
Trenches
−0.03 #90Line yards per rush+0.22 #47
+0.08 #78Line yards per rush allowed+0.06 #75
+3.3% #133Runs stuffed at the line−1.5% #76
+0.6% #59Opponent runs stuffed−1.3% #91
+1.3% #121Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU)−1.6% #62
+0.7% #39Havoc created−0.5% #64
Big plays
+0.018 #72Rushing explosiveness+0.048 #54
+0.239 #24Passing explosiveness+0.094 #79
−0.29 #93Open-field yards per rush+0.37 #13
−0.116 #20Pass explosiveness allowed+0.365 #138
Style and schedule
58% #46Run rate52% #105
−6.5 #70Strength of schedule (avg opponent)−2.8 #45
Boston College: last 5 games
| W27-21 | Covered | |
| L16-25 | Covered | |
| L14-21 | Covered | |
| W22-16 | Missed | |
| W28-21 | Covered |
Georgia Tech: last 5 games
| L24-34 | Missed | |
| W28-25 | Covered | |
| L27-34 | Missed | |
| W44-11 | Missed | |
| L24-45 | Missed |
Rating trend
BEAVER Stats: net EPA per play against an average team, entering each weekBCGT
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Closing lines
the last line before kickoff| Book | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | GT −6 | 50.5 | BC +200 · GT −245 |
| BEAVER fair line | GT −10.7 | 52.4 | BC +300 · GT −300 |
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Tendencies
Season to date. Against the spread and over/under use closing lines.| BC | GT | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-3 | Record | 2-5 |
| 2-2 | Conference | 1-3 |
| 3-1 | Home | 2-3 |
| 1-2 | Away | 0-2 |
| 5-2 | Against the spread | 1-6 |
| 2-5 | Over/under | 5-2 |
| 24.4 / 23.6 | Points for / against | 26.7 / 30.3 |
| +0.9 | Avg margin | -3.6 |
| +3.1 | Avg vs. the spread | -7.7 |
| 65.7 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 59.7 |