College football scores › Week 7 › Wisconsin at UCLA
BEAVER UCLA −2.5, wonBEAVER Over 42.5, lostBEAVER had UCLA 78% to win
BEAVER against the market
Locked at kickoff, graded on the closing line| BEAVER | Sam | Market | Result | Call | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score (WIS–UCLA) | 19–31 | 21–32 | – | 7–17 | |
| Spread | UCLA −12.0 | UCLA −11.6 | UCLA −2.5 | UCLA by 10 | UCLA −2.5 ✓ |
| Total | 49.7 | 53.0 | 42.5 | 24 | Over 42.5 ✗ |
| UCLA win chance | 78% | – | −122 | Won |
WIS by 14+
5%
WIS by 1–13
17%
UCLA by 1–13
33%
UCLA by 14+
45%
Spread: 9.5 pts better than Vegas for UCLA (sides with a gap this size have won 49% in the backtest). Total: 7.2 pts above Vegas (54% historically). Opened UCLA −3.
Tale of the tape
BEAVER Stats, opponent-adjusted, entering the game. Rank among 138 FBS teams.Efficiency
+0.022 #52Offense EPA / play+0.076 #32
−0.110 #19Defense EPA / play allowed−0.173 #6
−2.2% #92Offense success rate+4.3% #27
−4.6% #21Defense success rate allowed−4.8% #18
+0.150 #20Rushing EPA / play+0.209 #8
+0.004 #55Passing EPA / play−0.068 #84
+0.011 #64Rush defense EPA allowed−0.177 #6
−0.205 #10Pass defense EPA allowed−0.173 #13
+2.2 #51Scoring offense (pts vs avg)+7.9 #19
−7.0 #19Scoring defense (pts vs avg)−7.0 #18
Situational
−1.5% #65Passing-down success (3rd & long)+0.1% #49
−8.6% #3Passing-down success allowed−7.1% #10
+0.32 #48Points per drive+0.54 #34
−0.93 #13Points per drive allowed−0.98 #9
Trenches
+0.18 #58Line yards per rush+0.60 #6
+0.03 #72Line yards per rush allowed−0.41 #17
−6.0% #19Runs stuffed at the line−3.9% #35
−4.8% #129Opponent runs stuffed+5.1% #13
−1.9% #59Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU)−2.2% #48
−0.7% #73Havoc created+4.6% #5
Big plays
+0.293 #1Rushing explosiveness+0.092 #33
+0.279 #18Passing explosiveness+0.056 #95
−0.08 #60Open-field yards per rush+0.71 #4
−0.203 #8Pass explosiveness allowed+0.106 #103
Style and schedule
57% #45Run rate61% #22
−2.4 #36Strength of schedule (avg opponent)−0.6 #22
Wisconsin: last 5 games
| W31-3 | Covered | |
| W24-20 | Covered | |
| W54-10 | Covered | |
| W36-9 | Missed | |
| L13-41 | Missed |
UCLA: last 5 games
| W17-15 | Covered | |
| W54-3 | Covered | |
| W52-38 | Covered | |
| W28-10 | Covered | |
| W45-24 | Covered |
Rating trend
BEAVER Stats: net EPA per play against an average team, entering each weekWISUCLA
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Closing lines
the last line before kickoff| Book | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | UCLA −2.5 | 42.5 | WIS +102 · UCLA −122 |
| BEAVER fair line | UCLA −12 | 49.7 | WIS +345 · UCLA −345 |
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Tendencies
Season to date. Against the spread and over/under use closing lines.| WIS | UCLA | |
|---|---|---|
| 5-2 | Record | 7-0 |
| 3-1 | Conference | 5-0 |
| 4-0 | Home | 4-0 |
| 1-1 | Away | 3-0 |
| 4-3 | Against the spread | 7-0 |
| 3-4 | Over/under | 3-4 |
| 27.0 / 15.3 | Points for / against | 34.4 / 15.3 |
| +11.7 | Avg margin | +19.1 |
| +5.7 | Avg vs. the spread | +13.4 |
| 55.0 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 66.3 |