BEAVER
College football scores › Week 6 › Boise State at Fresno State
Boise StateNo. 206-1away
38
FinalValley Children's Stadium, 72°, wind 9 mph
Fresno State4-3home
31
BEAVER BOIS −7, pushBEAVER Over 48.5, wonBEAVER had BOIS 70% to win

BEAVER against the market

Locked at kickoff, graded on the closing line
BEAVERSamMarketResultCall
Score (BOIS–FRES)29–2026–22–38–31
SpreadBOIS −8.1BOIS −3.9BOIS −7BOIS by 7BOIS −7 push
Total49.048.048.569Over 48.5 ✓
FRES win chance30%–+250Lost
BOIS by 14+
36%
BOIS by 1–13
34%
FRES by 1–13
22%
FRES by 14+
8%

Spread: 1.1 pts better than Vegas for Boise State (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 0.5 pts above Vegas (52% historically). Opened BOIS −6.5.

Tale of the tape

BEAVER Stats, opponent-adjusted, entering the game. Rank among 138 FBS teams.
Efficiency
+0.115 #21Offense EPA / play−0.065 #92
−0.053 #34Defense EPA / play allowed−0.054 #33
+4.4% #28Offense success rate−4.3% #109
−4.6% #18Defense success rate allowed+1.7% #81
+0.098 #41Rushing EPA / play−0.132 #124
+0.151 #21Passing EPA / play+0.112 #31
+0.041 #77Rush defense EPA allowed−0.026 #42
−0.112 #22Pass defense EPA allowed−0.052 #31
+4.7 #32Scoring offense (pts vs avg)−3.0 #81
−4.2 #32Scoring defense (pts vs avg)−3.2 #40
Situational
+5.1% #19Passing-down success (3rd & long)−1.0% #60
−2.5% #44Passing-down success allowed−0.0% #72
+0.44 #38Points per drive−0.39 #84
−0.69 #21Points per drive allowed+0.10 #68
Trenches
+0.39 #22Line yards per rush−0.39 #129
−0.28 #22Line yards per rush allowed+0.09 #82
−3.9% #39Runs stuffed at the line+6.8% #136
+6.4% #6Opponent runs stuffed−0.3% #74
−5.7% #7Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU)−1.5% #65
+3.1% #14Havoc created+0.4% #50
Big plays
+0.009 #73Rushing explosiveness−0.055 #100
+0.162 #45Passing explosiveness+0.109 #67
−0.12 #67Open-field yards per rush−0.06 #58
+0.237 #133Pass explosiveness allowed−0.129 #22
Style and schedule
64% #11Run rate57% #55
−1.1 #22Strength of schedule (avg opponent)−10.8 #93

Boise State: last 5 games

W37-18
vsUtah State
Missed
W32-7
atWestern Michigan
Covered
W38-24
vsSouth Dakota
Missed
W38-20
vsMemphis
Covered
L27-34
atOregon
Covered

Fresno State: last 5 games

W26-6
atWashington State
Covered
W38-24
vsRice
Covered
W26-10
atSan José State
Covered
W49-3
vsSacramento State
Covered
L0-39
atUSC
Missed

Rating trend

BEAVER Stats: net EPA per play against an average team, entering each week
−0.15−0.07+0.02+0.11+0.19Entering week123456Boise State · 1: +0.01Boise State · 2: +0.09Boise State · 3: +0.13Boise State · 4: +0.09Boise State · 5: +0.17Boise State · 6: +0.17Fresno State · 1: −0.08Fresno State · 2: −0.13Fresno State · 3: −0.10Fresno State · 4: −0.06Fresno State · 5: −0.10Fresno State · 6: −0.01
● Boise State● Fresno State